Group Think and Crowds
In chapter 16 we are introduced to the phenomenon of information cascade. Although everyone has some incomplete private information, they will suspend their private information in favor of the crowd’s information, even if that information is misleading. In the experiment shown in class, there is a 1/9 chance that first two students will draw the blue ball, the minority ball, however, due to information cascade, it is safe to argue that no matter how large the subsequent crowd is, the decision will be the wrong one, in this case, blue ball is the majority.
The concept in this chapter could be used to explain a prominent concept in psychology, group think. According to WikiPedia :”Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within a a social group, in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome. Group members try to minimize conflict and reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation of alternative viewpoints, by actively suppressing dissenting viewpoints, and by isolating themselves from outside influences.” In professional settings, group think could be seen when a senior or just a few average member voiced their opinions first, then everyone follows their opinion without critically assessing it. This process could lead to groups to take one far more extreme decision. A historical example of this is the Holocaust. While the overwhelming majority of Germans will not kill Jews when they are making individual decisions, the strong social group setting made by Adolf Hitler made the tragedy possible.
One of the greatest example of group think and cascading information is the Bay of Pigs invasion by JFK administration. Because the plans was largely drew up by Eisenhower administration, it was taken to be true by JFK’s advisors as correct without much debate or reassessment. The hierarchy in the structure of decision making also contributed to group think. The view of the most senior advisors is valued the most and everyone tends to discard their private opinion to support group conformity.
Therefore, to counter group think, groups need to deploy the critical set of brainstorming, coming up as many ideas as possible without making judgements about them. Also encouraging alternative viewpoints and dissent is very important. As shown by the following New Yorker Article:
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/01/30/groupthink