Forecasting the Paris Climate Talks
It time again for an international climate talk, but this one is different – contrary to the expectations of political rhetoric and empty promises, this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris is expected to introduce some changes that matter. Recent earnest pledges made by the United States and China are among the key commitments that give many hope for some serious change and action. For now, though, one can only guess what will happen in a conference of almost 200 countries spanning 11 days. Will differences in opinion be too much like they were in Copenhagen 2009, or will countries finally come together and put aside differences to converge on a strong, binding agreement?
Predicting the outcome of political events is something many love to do and even argue about, but a group of researchers from the Netherlands, Germany, and Scotland are taking their speculation one step further and attempting to forecast the Paris results using something we have all learned in class – Game Theory. These “predictioneers” are collecting data such as risk and gain for each member of the summit and preexisting stances on the climate change issue. In addition, there is an “ongoing survey posted to 100 experts, including negotiators, NGO chiefs and journalists” which “break down issues like climate finance, review cycles to deepen emissions cuts and differentiation between the responsibilities of rich and poor countries.”
Is this study sounding familiar to you? It should. Once all the data has been collected, the researchers will compare the strategies of each “player” at the conference and determine which ones would benefit or hurt each country. Toward the end of this analysis, a (hopefully) somewhat-accurate prediction of the Paris outcome will be created. Of course, this is not a simple 2×2 matrix with easily understood payoffs, but in its core, it is still the Game Theory we have learned.
However there are still some caveats, as with most theoretical models. This application of Game Theory applied to the real world still excludes some potentially tide-turning factors, such as the state of current politics and the recent trend towards “eco-friendly” promises. One can assume only that each country will be working for their own best interest in this model, but we will only know for sure once the games begin.
source: http://www.rtcc.org/2015/09/15/predictioneers-forecast-paris-climate-talks-outcome-with-game-theory/