Game Theory in Reality Competition Shows
Game theory involves situations where people make decisions based on other peoples’ decisions to optimize the outcomes. Literal “games” occur in a popular form of television media; reality competition shows. Each player participates with a certain strategy. Some competitors focus on winning smaller challenges to maintain an advantage in the game. Others focus on building alliances. Others purposefully lie and cheat their way to the top. In the end, everybody is competing for a big prize, the optimal payoff.
Many typical reality competition tropes (immunity, alliances, trickery) entered the mainstream through the CBS show Survivor. Perhaps the most memorable contestant was Richard Hatch from the show’s first iteration. The final three of the season were Richard, Kelly, and Rudy. The survivors’ final challenge would be to rest their hands on an idol. The last person to let go would gain immunity and actually pick the second finalist. At first thought, the set-up of the situation seems simple. If you win the challenge, you have 100% chance of moving forward. If you lose, you have 50% chance of moving forward because the winner will pick one of two survivors.
Richard, however, made a very bold choice to quit the challenge and wish the two other players good luck. He claimed he would never be able to outlast them. Though he may have appeared to diminish his chances of becoming a finalist in half, he actually played a smart game. By quitting the last round so early in the round, he put into mind of the two other players that he was a weak competitor. If Kelly won the challenge, it would be in her best interest to keep Richard in the competition to increase her chances of winning. If Richard won the challenge, it would be in his best interest to keep Richard in the competition to increase his chances of winning. Richard brilliantly shifted an unfavorable situation into a guarantee he would move on. Kelly ended up winning, and she did in fact pick Richard to join her in the Finals.
Richard also accounted for Survivor Finals gameplay. In the end, the last seven eliminated contestants would vote for the winner. By leaving the immunity challenge early, Richard also established a rivalry between Kelly and Rudy. Since Richard’s safety was guaranteed, the winner between Kelly and Rudy would directly send the other person home. The eliminated player would refuse to vote for the challenge winner out of a grudge. Assuming the six other votes were tied, the eliminated player would essentially decide the winner. Richard’s theory, that his losing the immunity challenge would grant him the win ended up proving true; he won the first season of Survivor and one million dollars.
Another reality competition that features Game Theory is ABC’s Bachelor Pad. When the competition is whittled down to a winning couple, one man and one woman, they are subjected to a classic Prisoner’s Dilemma. If each contestant opts to share the cash prize with the other, each returns home with $125,000, a 50% payoff. If one contestant opts to share the money but the other chooses to “keep” the money, the “keeper” would win the full $250,000. If both decided to keep the money, neither would win any prize. Even though it would appear in their best interests to share the money, the opportunity to win an extra amount of money and the satisfaction of “cheating” the game might motivate a contestant otherwise. There is no strictly dominant strategy; the contestant must judge how well they know the person they “supposedly fell in love with” before making a dominant strategy. Each must pick a strategy that is a best response to the possible strategies of the other player.
The payoff itself resembles the “hawk-dove” game. If they both play aggressively, they will both lose. If they both behave passively, they both moderately win. If one is aggressive but the other passive, the aggressive player will win big.
Although examples of game theory abound in the real world, reality competition show games are a very explicit way to witness decision making. Many theorists (linked to below) have examined the thoughts of the strongest competitors. With the success of such strategies in reality shows, more and more competitors are learning. Yet, it becomes more difficult to devise a strictly dominant strategy because a second player may know what to expect an make completely unexpected plays.
Through reality competition shows, we have a straightforward resource to see game theory in play while also enjoying people succeed with gameplay or fail because of it.
Sources:
- http://michaelmathseminar.blogspot.com/2012/10/glorious-richard-hatch.html
- http://www.purplerockpodcast.com/2015/07/10/30-from-30-3-the-jury-chooses-richard-hatch/
- http://harrisonbrookie.blogspot.com/2010/09/bachelor-pad-game-theory.html