Game Theory and Nuclear Missiles
Link: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-win-a-nuclear-standoff/
When pondering the prospect of nuclear war on account of the rhetoric from both President Trump and Kim Jong-Un, for most people, a game wouldn’t be the first thing to come to mind. However, Oliver Roeder uses game theory to explain the unpredictability of the nuclear conflict in his article, “How to Win a Nuclear Standoff.” He likens the interactions between Trump and Kim Jong Un to a game where players pick a number between 0 and 100. Whichever player writes the higher number wins $100, but the lower number ends up being the chance that each player burns $10,000 of their own money. Roeder draws the comparison, stating that “The $100 prize becomes the concession of some international demand — a piece of disputed territory, say — while the $10,000 potential cost becomes untold death and destruction, nuclear winter and the very fate of our species and planet.” The essence of this game not only lies in which player is more willing to take risks, but how much each player believes the other will risk choosing a high number. Getting the other player to pick a lower number by coming off as a risk taker is the object of the game, and it is exactly what Trump and Un are participating in.
The appetite for risk on both sides of the conflict has interesting implications for the concepts within game theory discussed in class. Seeing as both sides seem to be threatening each other with more fervor with each passing day, the $10,000 loss—or the destruction of the Earth as we know it, is becoming more likely. The more risk that each side is willing to take (or make the other country think that it is taking), the closer we get to the prospect of nuclear war, which is by definition, short and gruesome. As each player, Trump and Un, give more threats, the dominant strategy for each country is to bet a number closer to 100. Each side is hungry for a small symbolic victory, and they are increasingly willing to risk the fate of the world for it. At the same time, however, there can never be a pure Nash equilibrium for the United States. While Trump may be unpredictable, it is doubtful that he would take the risk of explicitly threatening to resort to nuclear war, as public opinion would sway against him heavily.
While at the moment, it is not very foreseeable that either country would back down, let’s hope that they’re willing to bet numbers that are closer to 0 soon.