China, North Korea, and the US; An Unbalanced Network
“WHAT WOULD CHINA DO IF NORTH KOREA AND THE UNITED STATES GO TO WAR?” – South China Morning Post
The situation on the Korean Peninsula seems to become more tense each day due to provocations from North Korea, careless remarks from the United States administration, and an unbalanced social network.
China and the United States have a (mostly) positive relationship due to the enormous amounts of trade that the two countries engage in, and China and North Korea have a (mostly) positive relationship due to not only trade but also ideological similarities in the government. This puts China in a particularly tough situation, because the United States and the North Korean governments have an extremely negative relationship, so there is not much China can do if North Korea and the U.S. go to war. This social network looks like this (in an extremely simplified version at least):
In class we learned that if 3 nodes in a social network have an unbalanced structure in their connections (I.E. All negative connections or 2 positive and one negative connection), then these connections are inherently unstable and are prone to change over time. This theory would have pretty large ramifications for the international community, as a negative relationship between China and the United States could have the potential to crash the world economy. The other two scenarios are also equally unlikely, as North Korea would need to do something very extremely to alienate a fellow Marxist state, and a positive relationship between the U.S. and North Korea would only happen following regime change in either country (more than likely North Korea before the U.S.).
In any case, this particular unbalanced network will make for an interesting, if not scary, next couple years.