Predicting Major Traffic Jams due to 2017 Solar Eclipse
This article forecasted major traffic jams during the most recent total solar eclipse. On August 21, 2017, many Cornellians were peacefully sitting on the lawn of the observatory watching the phenomenon occur. The eclipse was visible in the belt spanning across the US for the first time since March 1979. The next total eclipse to occur will be in April 2024 but it will not be as visible from as many US locations as the 2017. For the sake of seeing this rare occurrence, between “1.85 million to 7.4 million” people may commute into the path of visibility. In preparation to this predicted migration, the Office of Operations of the U.S. Department Transportation (USDOT) has issued a fact sheet regarding to the effects that the eclipse may have on roadways nationwide. The predicted traffic congestion problem can be directly analyzed using Nash equilibrium.
Nash equilibrium is a concept in game theory where an individual would receive the best payoff where he/she would not want to change his/her strategy after considering opposing side’s options. Likewise to the individual, drivers need to make the best decision on which path (from the many) they should take to view this total solar eclipse. Where the path of the drivers ultimately depended on where the drivers were originally located. According to this article, about 12 million people currently live in the totality paths. However, about 200 million people live within a day’s drive from the path of visibility. For example, residents of Atlanta will be just about 80 miles outside the total visibility path. This individual from Atlanta would need to consider the payoffs of each possible routes he/she took to what location. He/she would evaluate the shortest path and or shortest time to reach the destination.
Another important aspect of game theory is analyzing where the most congestion would occur and making points to alleviate it. The USDOT allowed the state and local DOT to institute roadblocks to keep drivers from pulling over in search for an ideal view of the eclipse. In addition, there it is also anticipated that traffic will be highly compressed after the eclipse has passed. By not allowing drivers to pull over, they intend to allow for increased traffic flow.
https://eclipse2017.nasa.gov/eclipse-who-what-where-when-and-how