How Game Theory Relates to Trump’s Comments to North Korea
For many months, the world has watched apprehensively as North Korea, despite the demands of the United Nations, continues to test its nuclear missiles. From fears in Cuba that the missile would strike there to seeing missiles over Japan, this remains a very prominent issue. Many nations are taking different strategies in regards to this. Most countries are playing this very diplomatically; under the United Nations, sanctions are getting tighter and stricter. Less conventionally, however, is the use of 140 characters from our country boasting about how North Korea will be “met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.” This goes against any theory of diplomacy and basic common sense; this is igniting fire to an inferno. To be blunt, this is pure idiocy. But by using concepts of game theory, there may be a way to explain this—not justify it, but decode what is going on in this man’s head.
Back in 1969 during the Vietnam War, President Nixon employed a similar strategy. He had sent nuclear-armed bombers to the Soviet Union, not planning on deploying them, but in an effort to convince the Soviet Union that he was crazy enough to start a nuclear war in an effort to try and force them to back down and end the war. This was Nixon’s strategy; in response, Vietnam and the Soviet Union could either back down or not. If they backed down, they could prevent a nuclear war, but they would lose their pursuits in the Vietnam War. If they chose not to back down, they could risk Nixon staying true to his word and starting a nuclear war, but they would still be able to not end the Vietnam War. Nixon, on the other hand, had two counter strategies: to actually stay true to his word or to not. This resembles the four-box matrix approach we had used in class; if Nixon and Ho Chi Minh were the two players, they both have two strategies each: Nixon could deploy the nuclear weapons or not and Ho Chi Minh could back out of the Vietnam War or not. While the war ultimately dragged on for an additional 6 years, this became an example of game theory still applicable today.
With a background in business, Trump is likely well familiar with game theory and similar strategies like this. What Trump is attempting could be something similar; he wants to create large threats to North Korea, warning them that an all-out nuclear war could be imminent. He wants to create fear in North Korea, forcing them to back down. He is, as the article describes, employing the “madman” strategy that Nixon had attempted. However, this idea of game theory doesn’t necessarily translate super well because Kim Jong Un of North Korea appears to be attempting a similar strategy. While a similar matrix can be drawn—in which Trump’s strategy is launch nuclear weapons or not and Jong Un has the same choices—this is not just describing a small situation like Trump’s business dealings; if they both choose the nuclear war strategy, this could have drastic and deadly impacts.