Game Theory in the NFL: Football’s Greatest Game Theorist, Bill Belichick
https://blogs.pugetsound.edu/econ/2015/02/06/bill-belichick-knows-game-theory/
Sports are far more than a showcase of athleticism, where the team with the better players and better performance comes out on top. It is often said that games are won or lost before they are played. This is a result of endless hours practicing offensive and defensive schemes, and preparing for what you think your opponent might throw at you. What coaches know as game day preparation might better be known to ecumenists and theorists as game theory.
I can’t think of a sport that better implements the tactics of game theory. Although there is an argument to be made about game theory in pretty much any sport, where a defense is constantly preparing for what the offense might throw at them, I think football emphasizes it best. The simple nature of football makes game theory a near necessity. Football, unlike sports such as basketball, or lacrosse, is not continuous, in the sense that there is a break after every play where players and coaches huddle up to discuss the next play, based off what the coaches and coordinators have been seeing the entire game. After every play the coaches game theorize to decide what the best strategy will be for the following play based off strategies they’ve seen their opponent gain situational tendencies for. Alright, enough explaining, let’s get to the main course.
As a die hard New-Englander, I couldn’t pass up on the chance to write about the best game theorist the NFL has and will ever see, my beloved (and universally hated) Bill Belichick. If Belichick were to be fired today, I’d have no doubt that he could be hired as a game theorist working for any of the top firms as an economic advisor, after all he studied economics at Wesleyan. I’d like to talk about an article I found pertaining to Super Bowl 49, where the Patriots beat the Seahawks on a last minute goal line interception. What many think might have been the worst call in Super Bowl history, after all, who would pass on the 2 yard line with the best back in the league in the backfield, might rather be seen as a result of Belichick’s ingenuity as a game-theorist and play caller. Ricky Howard writes in the article I posted above how the miracle interception Butler made was in part due to immense preparation in the upcoming weeks. Now granted, the play couldn’t have occurred had the Seahawks not passed, but that just speaks to the fact that the Patriots had a set of responses to each of the possible strategies they thought the Seahawks might throw at them. Given the set of scenarios, it appeared apparent to everyone who knows a lick of football that to run the ball with super star Marshawn Lynch appeared to be the dominant strategy. Perhaps Pete Caroll was being a game theorist in his own mind. Pete Carroll was likely having the trouble of trying to decipher what was going through Belichick’s mind. “He obviously thinks were going to run the ball,” Carroll must’ve thought. Fortunately, for us Patriots fans, no stone goes unturned with Bill Belichick. In reality, the Super Bowl miracle came down to practice the week before, where, if you watch the documentary about the Pats’, you’ll notice how the Pats’ defense drafted a defensive scheme for that specific goal line play. What seemed to be an on the spot response to a pass play was really a result of game theorist preparation. Thank God the Pats won that game, for the sake of the Pats’ legacy, Tom Brady’s reputation, and New England’s well being. Had they not won that game, I’d probably still be browsing the web for content to blog about. My thanks go out to Bill and Tom.