The Syrian Conflict as an Unbalanced Network
Studying network balance can provide insights into the diplomatic instability surrounding the Syrian conflict.
I’ve created a graph of diplomatic relations:
(Red lines denote hostile relationships, green the opposite; dotted lines denote weak relationships)
The first thing you’ll notice is that this network is a mess; there are balance violations abound. Several triangles exist where every edge is an enemy relation (namely those that include ISIS), and several triangles exist with two positive ties and a negative tie (thus even violating weak balance). Just by looking at this graph, it should come as no surprise that diplomatic and military operations are frought with complications. However, a closer analysis of the graph will suggest specific tensions between actors and strategies they might take.
For instance, we might expect tension along the US-Turkey connection due to the imbalance introduced by their relationships with the Kurdish-led rebel forces. And indeed, this is the case. Similarly, much scrutiny within the US is placed upon its aid of Syrian rebels, due to their positive relationship with Islamic extremists. [1]
The graph also suggests tension upon the enemy relationship between Assad and the US. This tension is reflected in the real world– the US does not directly fight Assad, and instead merely supports a subset of his enemies. Diplomatic maneuvers by the US and Russia have been designed to reduce tension between them in the form of ceasefires. This maneuver takes advantage of balance properties itself, by playing upon the tension caused by the mutual enemyship between ISIS, Assad, and the Syrian rebels. The Economist also comments upon a motivation for Russia to weaken the relationship between the US and Syrian rebels by taking advantage of its existing negative relationship with extremist groups. [2]
[1] http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21705658-battlefield-syria-grows-more-complicated-smoke-and-chaos?fsrc=scn%2Ffb%2Fte%2Fbl%2Fed%2F
[2] http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21707213-pause-fighting-welcome-america-may-be-playing-hands-russia-and