The Republican Presidential Primaries and Game Theory
The race for a presidential nomination can be viewed as a game, where candidates are players who must choose the strategy that will have the highest payoff for their campaign and ultimately help them win the nomination. As the second Republican presidential primary debate nears, many people are discussing the strategies they think each candidate will take at the podium. Candidates like Jeb Bush and Scott Walker who have both lost popularity in the polls since the first debate are generally expected to take an aggressive strategy in order to prove to voters that they are confident and committed. What I find most interesting are the expectations for candidates whose polling numbers have improved since the last debate, especially those for Donald Trump. In his New York Times article entitled “G.O.P. Debate Night: What the 11 Leading Candidates Need to Do,” Jonathan Martin writes that Trump “must be careful that his candor does not turn into hostility if he is lured into direct confrontation with other candidates,” and that he especially “must avoid anything that comes across as bullying Mrs. [Carly] Fiorina” after facing criticism in the media for his comments on women. This was surprising to me because Trump supporters generally praise him for his refusal to be politically correct, so what incentive does he have to change strategies at this debate after the last one seemed to improve his popularity?
Another New York Times article by Alicia Parlapiano, “How the G.O.P. Race Has Changed Since the First Debate,” sheds some light on how complex campaign strategies must be. In the campaign for the Republican nomination, the payoffs of candidates’ various strategies cannot be measured only by poll numbers. For example, while Jeb Bush currently has less than 10% support in the polls (Martin), his campaign has raised more money and received more endorsements than any of his competitors’, and experts predict he is the most likely to receive the nomination in the end with a one in three chance (Parlapiano).
Donald Trump must diversify his campaign strategy in tonight’s debate because although polls may show voter support, if he wants to eventually achieve the nomination he also needs to gain support among influential figures in the party or as other candidates drop out he may lose his lead. The complexity of payoffs in a game like this makes it unlikely that there is a dominant strategy for any candidate to follow throughout their entire campaign. Rather, candidates are expected to adapt to criticism and public opinion in order to maximize long-term support.
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