The game theory of coup attempts
This article discusses the content of a book that presents political coups as a coordination game, a special class of games where multiple pure strategy Nash equilibria exist. In the situation of a coup, each person has the choice of participating or not, and the payoffs of each choice is dependent on the choice of all others. For instance, participating in a coup with just a few members has a very low payoff, as the coup is unlikely to succeed. As more people join the coup, the incentive to join increases, similar to how a website or video can go viral on the internet, or why the popularity of some websites is self sustaining. In the context of Nash equilibria, the best choice in this case is to “coordinate” one’s decision with that of others in order to maximize your own payoff and even increase the payoff of those coordinated with.
This advice can inform the aspiring coup member as to what they should do to increases their chances of success. In coups in particular, the military often plays a pivotal role, so convincing the members of the military, particularly the leadership, that most everyone is on the side of the coup will encourage the military to assist. The book the article is about suggests that “seizing the main radio broadcast facility” is a beneficial course of action for a coup, as the coup leadership can then more easily claim that they have popular support, and even increase their actual support by broadcasting. This advice applies to a broader set of applications: a new social network site needs to focus on gathering more members, as few people will use a social network that nobody they know is using. Additionally, it’s to a company’s advantage to project a sense of popularity of their brand, as potential customers will reason that if such a large group find the company’s products worthwhile there must be a good reason, and the new customer will be encouraged to purchase.