Game Theory in Game of Thrones Season 1
The given article debates whether the political scenarios present in Game of Thrones, represent a zero-sum game, i.e. a game in which there can only be one winner and one loser and their payoffs all add up to 0. The article quotes a famous line from the show’s antagonist Cersei Lannister to the show’s initial protagonist Ned Stark, “When you play the Game of Thrones, you win or you die.” This quote suggests a zero-sum game, one in which for example only one of Ned Stark or Cersei Lannister can win the game. The immediate aftermath of this quote, where Ned Stark is first shamed then beheaded, suggests a clear winner in Cersei Lannister. Fans mourn over the imprisonment and subsequent death of one of their favorite characters in Ned Stark and Cersei immediately becomes one of the most disliked characters on the show. Closer analysis of this game between Cersei and Ned reveal interesting insights and are presented below.
The game between Cersei and Ned is set immediately after King Robert’s death and Ned’s revelation to Cersei about him knowing about incestuous relationship between her twin brother Jaime Lannister. Ned has two options: whether to rebel against the Lannisters by revealing their secret and keeping his honor intact but risking his family (his two daughters are in close custody to Cersei) in an impeding war with the Lannisters or try and maintain peace in the capitol, ensuring safety for his family but a sacrifice of his honor. Cersei on the other hand, now armed with the knowledge that Stark knows that her Joffrey isn’t the rightful heir to the throne has two simple options: whether to put Joffrey on the throne or not, with the risk of the impeding rebellion led by Stark. The payoffs were decided upon based on the following reasoning:
- If Ned rebels against the Lannisters and Cersei declares Joffrey as king, then Ned does keep his honor intact but not only does he risk himself and family but also at least in the short term is an enemy of a vile and twisted Joffrey, who is the most powerful man in the seven kingdoms at this stage.
- If Ned reveals the truth about the Lannisters and Cersei admits to her crimes and puts the rightful heir Stannis on the throne, then this presents a much more favorable situation for Ned but also puts his family at risk in the future from the likes of Tywin and Cersei Lannister.
- A more favorable situation for both the characters (pure strategy Nash equilibrium as seen later) is if Ned doesn’t reveal the truth about the Lannisters, maintains good relations with the Lannisters in the short term, at least till he can gather support and saves his family too. Cersei gets what she wants too and Joffrey is named as King and the realm is peaceful for a few more years.
The payoff matrix below illustrates this game:
First thing to note is that this game is not a zero-sum game. The payoffs of Ned and Cersei vary and the payoffs do not add to zero due to a variety of different factors such as honor and family being included in determining the value of these payoffs. Secondly, there is a pure strategy Nash equilibrium in the game: regardless of what Ned does, Cersei should always declare Joffrey as king and regardless of what Cersei does, Ned should not rebel against the crown. Thus, the Nash equilibrium exists at Ned not rebelling against the crown and Cersei declaring Joffrey as king. Ned Stark chose honor above his and his family’s life and safety and paid for as it as is seen by the matrix above. This makes Ned Stark a poor player in this game as he failed to choose the dominant strategy, while Cersei, a viler but a much better player of the game, stuck to what was the best strategy for her. It is also interesting to note that the pure strategy Nash equilibrium in the matrix is the same as the one suggested to Stark by Littlefinger: a similar disliked character but an amazing player of the game.
Thus, this matrix of the game between Cersei and Ned reveals that the show runners killing of fan favorite Ned Stark was done because Ned chose a poor strategy and paid for it. The quote “When you play the Game of Thrones, you win or you die” doesn’t really hold true if one takes into account the numerous factors that go into choosing a strategy for any character on this show.
Link: https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/mgb47p/a-game-theory-of-thrones