The Game Theory of Terrorism
Terrorism is one of the largest issues in today’s world. Expenditures on domestic and international security have increased significantly to combat terrorism. And yet, one of the largest terrorist groups, ISIS, keeps growing in new recruits. According to the article, ISIS use Game Theory, and more specifically, the Schelling Point, to recruit members and spread their ideology. The author talks about Thomas Schelling’s theory (an adaptation of game theory) that describes the experiment where likeminded individuals will gather and “check the same box on a grid”, even without having any prior coordination. ISIS does this when foreign fighters check the box that they want to engage in terrorism based on rational behavior. ISIS also promotes their ideology by showing themselves in a positive light with the message that they want to educate the people and correct the wrongs of others. Plus, they promise perks like a tranquil Islamic State, riches, women, and hospitality. All of these perks combine to form the frame that potential recruits view when radicalizing.
In class, we have learned that game theory has mixed strategies and can be manipulated. If one party knows they will not succeed, then they change their game plan to ensure success. Likewise, the U.S. and other counterterrorism forces must hack away at ISIS recruitment with game theory in mind. They must show that ISIS is not only losing an unrealistic battle, but their promises are deceitful. Cash flow to ISIS and resources must be snatched up so that recruits get disgruntled and do not view the frame as stable and rigid, but as lacking and diminished. Something else that needs to be done is to negate the viewpoint that joining ISIS is the solution to all the problems. To do this, local actors and other sects should be empowered to counter ISIS forces and invalidate their radicalized point, thereby creating regional conflict. Using game theory, terrorist groups such as ISIS should have a hard time finding new members when they don’t have the resources or the promise to reach their goals.
Link to article: The Game Theory of Terrorism