Cruz and Kasich: The Candidate’s Dilemma
The 2016 presidential election has consumed the nation’s attention. Daily headlines regarding polls and candidates fill the media. Earlier this year, Ted Cruz and John Kasich were both vying for the Republican candidacy. Originally competitors, both aimed to dethrone Donald Trump, who was leading in the polls. Both Cruz and Kasich campaigned as the “anti-Trump candidate,” ultimately splitting the anti-Trump votes. This spring they decided to cooperate by splitting three state primary contests with the hope of “denying Trump the delegate count needed to win the nomination and forcing an open convention” (Safo).
Whether they realized it or not, Cruz and Kasich were using game theory and the prisoner’s dilemma to beat Trump and win the nomination for themselves. In the prisoner’s dilemma, two players are given the option of confessing or not. Neither wants to be the one who does not confess, if the other decides to come clean. The essence of the prisoner’s dilemma is whether they should cooperate to both benefit. The article “How Cruz and Kasich are playing game theory” argues that both Cruz and Kasich decided that it would be advantageous to work together, rather than compete. Similar to the classic prisoner’s dilemma, Cruz and Kasich determined they would be stronger together.
The matrix above represents the payoffs for each candidate, assuming there are 1,000 voters who are split between Cruz and Kasich. By joining forces, either Cruz or Kasich might get enough votes to block Trump’s automatic nomination. If Kasich cooperated and Cruz worked alone, Cruz might benefit more. Similarly, if Cruz cooperated and Kasich worked alone, Kasich might gain most of the votes. If they both work alone they would split the vote and most likely guarantee Trump the nomination. This payoff matrix is clearly an overgeneralization of the situation (the numbers are fictional and representative of each candidate’s choices); however, it captures the rationale that inspired the two candidates to work together.
http://www.marketplace.org/2016/04/25/elections/how-cruz-and-kasich-are-playing-game-theory