Hurricanes, Evacuation And Game Theory
In light of the destruction Irma has brought to Florida, analyzing concepts like evacuation routes in forms of both route congestion on streets and on planes is important, as well as consumables such as gas, water, and food, all of which often have extended wait lines. The first article analyzes game theory and disaster response, specifically dealing with resource distribution after a disaster. It states that if the government can manage the maximum and minimum amount of demand on resources, they can more effectively distribute their resources without congestion in travel. This congestion arises from the excess amount of resources delivered, at the root of this is competition. There is much competition among disaster relief sources, but Nash equilibrium can be reached with cooperation as opposed to competition, which improves the rate of deliverance.
A game theory model based evacuation analyzes the concepts of routes people may take in a fire escape situation with extra elements of crowding. This is very much related to the discussion on streets and routes, however, with the added danger and crowding along with traffic. In this game, similar to streets, people must act for themselves and find the fastest way for them to get out (or get from point A to point B), and may base their decision off of what others may perform. This truly is a game, because your outcome is directly affected by others, from both your decision and the effect it will have. While it is difficult to find an article directly correlating this to hurricane evacuation, escaping from Florida during Irma depended on a number of factors, one of which including airplane availability and congestion on highways. Does one wait out the storm? Are they in such a critical level of harm that they must leave, or should they bear the wait of leaving? There is also a level of compassion in this game- if you and your neighbor stays, and you have some form of social link with them, they will likely exist as a form of support. If more neighbors are friends, the more support they can build and share with each other, something I have experienced myself. Even just one bridge with a neighbor can open up a myriad of connections with whom you may benefit from.
These both relate to class and the ideas of Game Theory, in the idea that the actions of one person will affect the strategies and results in the other of the game. In the first article, the Nash Equilibrium reached by,
“NGOs were free from satisfying common minimum and maximum amounts of the relief item demands at points of need (a Nash Equilibrium model)” (Nagurney)
people benefited more in this dire time of need. We have discussed both game theory and nash equilibrium, and this exists as another real life example of game theory and its effects/applications. The second article gets more in depth with the mathematics involved, and has many extra factors that are too in-depth to discuss here, it still illustrates the idea of evacuation and the many processes and thoughts involved in the route one may take to escape in a stress situation, and often randomizing may need to be involved. Whether or not you escape is dependent on how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Links:
http://www.salon.com/2017/08/31/response-to-natural-disasters-like-harvey-could-be-helped-with-game-theory_partner/
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037971120600021X