If They Google You, Do You Win?
Although polls can predict an election results, another big indicator of whom voters will support in this election is Google searches. There is strong correlation between frequency of people searching for a candidate and voting for the candidate. For instance, in the primary elections, Google search volume for a candidate in a state has predicted electoral outcomes. As well, in the last past three general elections, the candidate with the most Google searches received the most votes (George W. Bush in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012)
And so, although the polls predict that Hilary is ahead in the election, this time around, nationwide, for every Google search about Hilary Clinton, there are two for Mr. Trump. However, just because there are more keyword searches of “Donald Trump” over Hilary Clinton, it is highly doubtful that there is widespread support for Donald Trump. Instead, the high search volume for Mr. Trump is more likely evidence that he elicits strong reactions and many who plan to vote for Hilary are searching information about Trump’s chances. However, there still seems to be evidence that the candidate who appeared first in more searches received the most votes. And the order the candidates were searched was also predictive of which way a particular state would go. Thus, we observed a statistically significant relationship of the order in which candidates appeared in Google searches in that state and the number of votes the candidate received in that state.
This article is related to what we learned in class Sponsored Searched Market in chapter 15, specifically advertising tied to search behavior. In keyword-based advertising, it creates markets out of the information-seeking behavior of hundreds of millions of people traversing the Web. As well, from the article, we can also extrapolate the prediction or indication of a candidate’s chance to win based on their “keyword (Name)” of Google search. Since a keyword based ad is tied in s me intrinsic way to the search behavior of a person, it is very positive and successful. Similarly, keyword searches can also show how much support a candidate has in the election as seen from previous 3 general election of 2004, 2008, and 2012.
Reference: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/23/opinion/campaign-stops/if-they-google-you-do-you-win.html?_r=1