Clinton, “The Deplorables”, and Game Theory
At a recent fundraiser in NYC, Hillary Clinton labeled half of Trump supporters as “deplorables”. “The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic—you name it.” Now, past elections would suggest this was a mistake. In 2012, you may remember, a video of Mitt Romney was leaked from a fundraiser; in it he essentially said that 47% of Americans will vote for Obama simply because they depend on welfare from the government. Many cite that incident as the nail in the coffin, as it gave so many the impression that Romney was out of touch with the American people. Similarly, in 2008, Obama stereotyped small town voters as people who “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them.”
The interesting thing about this scenario, however, is that while Romney, for example, quickly backtracked on his remarks, Clinton has been slow to do so. Despite her campaign slogan: Stronger Together, Clinton seems to be doubling down on her divisive comment. Even while apologizing for being too generalistic, saying “the deplorables” are less than half of Trump supporters, she hasn’t totally taken it back.
Now, in arguably the most high-profile presidential election in US history, one has to assume that some extremely politically savvy advisors helped Clinton come up with this strategy. So, in this game (post “deplorables” comment), out of all the strategies she could have chosen, she chose to stay the course, withholding a full apology. To get a full picture of why she may have done this, one must consider the payoffs.
Clinton’s supporters more than likely agreed with her statement. They believe that Trump supporters are largely bigots. Yet, from this cohort that agrees wholeheartedly, there’s not much to gain since Clinton already has their support. Trump supporters were likely enraged by the comment that paints a large portion of them as ignorant, but Clinton had no chance at their vote anyways. So, what about the undecided voters? Well, my best guess is that she hopes her statements will make those voters ask themselves, “Do I fall into the basket of the deplorables that support Trump?” And since most people do not want to self-identify as racist, sexist, etc., they may be more inclined to vote for Clinton – the strategy doesn’t seem so crazy now.
As for Trump’s response? Well, he’s making the most of it so far. For once, he’s taking the stance as the compassionate candidate, one who understands the woes of everyday Americans and knows his supporters are more than a bunch of xenophobic bigots – they want change. Similarly to the Left’s attack on Romney in 2012, the Right is now using this opportunity to pounce on Clinton, painting her as an elitist who thinks people who don’t agree with her are not just wrong, but deplorable. As the campaigns progress, it will be interesting to deduce the payoffs to each player from this incident and to see who the voters side with; it may become evident who’s employed the dominant strategy.
Reference: http://www.wsj.com/video/clinton-tries-using-deplorables-to-her-advantage/3C84A00E-28AF-4F08-A6AD-7917B5846F4A.html