The United States, India, and China: An Awkward Situation
The United States and India recently signed into reality a defense agreement that directly affects China, paving the way for potentially tense relations amongst the three countries. This agreement, titled LEMOA (the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) binds the US and India as allies, permitting them to use each other’s military institutions and resources in order to stall China’s mounting influence in Asia. It is in both the US and India’s interest to “contain” China, which in recent years has been gaining influence in Asia. If China ends up becoming too powerful, it could become unstoppable, and the voices of the US and India could lose power as China comes to dominate the political conversation in Asia. Thus this agreement represents the US and India attempting to maintain their influence in Asia by checking the power of China.
It is important to keep in mind the relations of the countries amongst each other at this point in time. The United States and India enjoy positive relations at the moment, as shown by the mutual, friendly agreement they have just signed into existence. The United States is also friendly with China—the two countries share close economic ties, fostering a near interdependence while greatly relying on each other in terms of foreign trade. However, a negative dynamic exists between China and India. They have no such positive relationship—instead, for a while now, India and China have been engaged in an antagonistic relationship involving border disputes and economic and political competition.
Thus the property of structural balance comes into play here. Together, the United States, India, and China form a triangle. Each of the countries represent a node. The edge between the United States and China can be labelled with a positive (+) to represent their positive relations. The edge between the United States and India can also be labelled with a positive (+) to represent their positive relations. However, the edge between India and China must be labelled with a negative (-) to represent their negative relations. Overall, this configuration violates the property of structural balance because structural balance requires that there be either one or three positive relations amongst the triangular network to maintain balance. In this case, there are two positive relations, suggesting that the triangle is not balanced.
This dynamic amongst the three countries has implications for the future. Because the network is not balanced, there is a sense of instability amongst the three countries. The United States, as the common point between China and India, might feel the need to try to bring the two countries together in an effort to ease relations in the triangle. There is also a possibility that the United States might feel pressured to side with one of the two countries in order to reduce the tension inherent in its position as the “friend” of two countries who dislike each other. This could lead to future conflicts amongst the three countries, with potential repercussions for countries that are not directly embroiled in this triangle. It will be interesting to see how relations between the three countries play out in the coming months.
Online resource: http://www.dawn.com/news/1280873