Unbalanced Networks in Syria
http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/31/middleeast/turkey-us-kurds-syria-analysis-walsh/
The linked article, “Washington’s Syrian headache: Keeping Turkey and Kurds apart,” discusses the network of positive and negative relationships between different groups involved in the Syrian crisis, specifically the US, Turkey, the YPG, and ISIS. In the absence of other reliable groups focused on fighting ISIS – a US priority – the US has been backing the YPG, a Syrian Kurdish group opposed to ISIS. With the support of US air power, the YPG has been able to push ISIS out of towns along the Turkish border, like Manbij. However, Turkey – which has long been fighting a Kurdish insurgency within its own borders – considers the YPG, a Kurdish group, to be terrorists, no different than the Kurdish groups fighting its government. Turkey, however, is one of the most critical partners of the US in fighting ISIS, providing airbases from which the US launches bombing missions. Turkey has now sent troops into Syria, ostensibly to fight ISIS, but in reality also to oppose the US-allied YPG.
The web of groups involved in this situation is essentially an unbalanced network. The US-Turkey relationship is positive, the US-YPG relationship is positive, but the Turkey-YPG relationship is negative. Additionally, the Turkey-ISIS relationship is negative, and the YPG-ISIS relationship is negative, but the Turkey-YPG relationship remains negative (as an aside, the article contains a great graphic showing the network of all positive and negative relationships of groups involved in Syria).
The triangle between the US, Turkey, and the YPG does seem to be moving towards balancing, however. The article describes Vice President Biden’s warning to the YPG, that they’ll lose US support if they fail to retreat east across the Euphrates river – despite previous US support in taking control of towns such as Manbij west of it. This move from the US seems to have been forced by Turkey, whom the US needs more than the YPG. The demand hasn’t yet been met, which sets up a potential negative relationship between the US and the YPG. As the title suggests, balancing two positive relationships with groups that hate each other is a difficult and unstable situation.