Endorsement and Collective Action
When Donald Trump won the nomination in July, he left Republican politicians unsure of whether or not to endorse him. And now, in the wake of Trump’s latest scandal, many are considering rescinding their endorsements. Trump’s abrasive brand of politics has received mixed reviews from both Democrats and Republicans since he began his campaign last summer. But as Trump began to run away with the primary earlier this year, many Republicans were left with tough choice. For young and aspiring representatives and senators, this decision would have a significant impact on their careers going forward. This weekend the same politicians are left with a similar ultimatum. Endorse or withdraw support.
Both of these decisions are related to each other, and to the principles of game theory. A good way to visualize this is by treating the decision as a game between Republicans. Each person has two options – Endorse or not endorse. There is a payoff matrix that more or less follows the same model as a “Collective action” game, where players are rewarded for coordinating their strategies. If a strong majority of members choose to endorse, then they will all receive a decent payoff, because they are sticking with the party, and will get votes in their respective elections. If a strong majority of members choose to not endorse, they will also receive a decent payoff, as they can focus on their own campaigns. They will stand in opposition to a divisive candidate, potentially drawing support from the other side of the ticket. However if the decisions are more split, there is less payoff for both decisions. Endorsers will not reap the benefit of a strong party backing, as others’ withdrawal of support weakens the Trump campaign. Those who withdraw support still face backlash from Republican voters who are loyal to their party. It is clear from this that a collective agreement should be the equilibrium state. The popular opinion of Donald Trump at the time is what tips the scales towards one choice or the other. After the RNC, Trump was the highest he’s been in the polls. Endorsing Trump would give a higher payoff than not endorsing him, so that became the equilibrium position, as almost all Republicans pledged their support. Now that his public image is taking a turn for the worse, not endorsing him will yield a higher and higher payoff. As anti-Trump sentiment grows within the party base, withdrawing support will draw more and more voters, and it becomes a more viable option. By analyzing the situation using game theory, it is clear to see why Republican governors, senators, and representatives are just now jumping ship in the past few days.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-09/puzzled-about-republicans-and-trump-game-theory-helps