Game Theory: Donald Trump’s Campaign Strategy
In Steven Bram’s article: “Here’s how game theory helps explain Donald Trump’s strategies” he highlights Republican Party Nominee: Donald Trump’s campaign strategy and why it is working. There are two central principals of game theory that are central to Trump’s campaign strategy – that there are conditions when it is rational to be ambiguous, and conditions when it pays to be confrontational. Much of what Mr. Trump says is ambiguous, (which may or may not be due to his lack of knowledge of on policy issues) but regardless game theory suggests that ambiguity can be a useful stance when making deals. Let’s look at three different characteristics of Trump and relate them back to game theory strategies.
First, Trump has garnered a ton of attention from the media, and from people in general due to his loud and unpredictable behavior. Unpredictability can be a rational strategy in in a game when you and your opponent’s best move depend on what strategy the opponent chooses. In a game where each player’s choices are interdependent, each side may intentionally wait to see the other’s strategy before responding. However, if both sides are determined to wait each other out, game theory suggests that one should behave in a manner that prevents your opponent from guessing your next move. This includes behaving randomly and sometimes irrationally in order to make it impossible for your opponent or in this case, Secretary Clinton to predict Mr. Trump’s next step. For example, when asked a question about whether he would shut down the government to pursue a cause, Trump declined to answer, “because I want to show unpredictability”.
Second, Trump has often been known to do something irrational, which from the second lesson of game theory, may actually be rational. It may sometimes be rational to be willing to do something outrageous and be prepared to accept the consequences. This makes Trump appear extremely tough and hard-nosed in all of his negotiations. For example, this strategy is reminiscent of Nixon’s “madman theory” which states that by credibly appearing “mad”, you scare your opponent into thinking that you might do something dreadful even at your own expense.
Third, Trump loves to play chicken with his opponents and is very good at it. The third strategy of Mr. Trump and how it relates to game theory is that sometimes insisting on an extreme, even outrageous, position can force others to respond in ways that may give you the advantage. This last characteristic of Trump is the opposite of the first strategy mentioned – ambiguity. In game theory, some situations may be best responded to by taking an unequivocal position and forcing an opponent to respond to it. For example, Trump’s threat to build a wall and force Mexico to pay for it, as many have pointed out, is completely impractical and will not happen. However, it forces people to respond, some with respect, and some with outrage. To many of his supporters, Trump’s claims demonstrate his strength and willingness to take a non-politically correct stance, even at the expense of losing votes.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/06/17/heres-how-game-theory-helps-explain-donald-trumps-strategies/