Day to Day Bayes Theorem
In lecture, we have been discussing Bayes theorem as a tool for examining decision making. Bayes theorem is not just an equation used by statisticians and it is not even limited to professional use! Bayes theorem can be applied in day to day decisions and can often provide a different outlook on events. As described by George Dvorsky and mathematician Spencer Greenberg, Bayes theorem can be utilized in day to day reasoning, by investigating confidence in our beliefs. This method of probabilistic reasoning involves changing your degree of belief when you encounter evidence to the contrary. The question we should ask ourselves is “assuming that our hypothesis is true, how much more plausible, or likely, is the evidence compared to the hypothesis if it was not true?”
Bayes theorem can indeed be a powerful tool in day to day life because it allows us to analyze the way we make decisions. It is a way for us to pause and think, maybe my medication isn’t as effective as I thought or maybe it isn’t going to rain in July, regardless of the forecast. On the other hand, Bayes theorem can be hard to precisely use because it requires a knowledge of certain external factors that can be hard to access. Take, for example, the rain in July scenario – where someone tells me that their forecast reports a 90% chance of rain tomorrow. Bayes theorem says that I should weigh those odds against the statistical likelihood of rain in July – but I will almost certainly be unable to deduce a probability value for tomorrow’s weather, but I will be able to say “There is less than a 90% chance of rain tomorrow.” Ultimately, Bayes theorem can be applied as a tool for roughly adjusting the way we examine evidence.
http://io9.gizmodo.com/how-bayes-rule-can-make-you-a-better-thinker-471233405