Information Cascades: Why the Growth in Residential Solar Energy Use Will Be Meteoric
Solar energy’s push to become a leader in alternative energy sources received strong tailwinds this week, following a report by Deutsche Bank claiming that solar energy will reach grid parity in 50 states by 2016 (basically what grid parity means is that solar energy will cost the same as the leading energy sources [ie. natural gas] at this point in time). Declining system costs, customer acquisition costs and financing costs in conjunction with rising volumes should drive significant scale benefits in the coming years. And as long as the tax incentives for using solar energy remain intact to some degree, we could start to see a lot of residential properties powering up through solar energy.
Currently, solar energy has achieved grid parity in 10 states. This leaves a lot of growing for solar energy if it is to meet its promise of grid parity in 50 states by 2016. But I believe that this is possible, and information cascades will play a major part in this growth. Until recently, the mindset about solar energy was that it is only accessible to the ultra-wealthy. But as technology has developed and the cost of financing installation has become cheaper, homeowners are beginning to consider the switch to solar energy. Once this begins, it would not be unreasonable to see an explosion in the use of solar energy residentially. It would only take a few early adapters in each community before word would spread that the sustainable, environmentally-friendly energy source is now affordable to the common family. As solar panels are built across America’s rooftops, people will start to develop their own curiosities and make the transition as well. The rise of solar energy nationwide is coming, and when it does, my prediction is that information-effect cascades will promote a very rapid rise.
http://cleantechnica.com/2014/10/29/solar-grid-parity-us-states-2016-says-deutsche-bank/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-29/while-you-were-getting-worked-up-over-oil-prices-this-just-happened-to-solar.html
http://www.theverge.com/2013/2/27/4036952/elon-musk-at-ted-solar-will-beat-natural-gas