Boston Globe Gubernatorial Endorsement – October 26, 2014
Three days ago, the Boston Globe editorial staff released an article endorsing a Massachusetts gubernatorial candidate for the first time in 20 years. This time, the typically liberal newspaper nominated Republican candidate Charlie Baker. Even though Baker has already been reported up in the polls by a widely reported 3 points as of October 24, 2014, it will be interesting seeing the effects that this endorsement will have on future polls and the election itself. It is possible to examine some of these future effects using information cascades as mapped in our Networks class.
In 1990, the Boston Globe endorsed moderate Republican Bill Weld, a former U.S. attorney, over conservative Democrat John Silber. Bill Weld won the election with 50% of the state’s vote. It appears throughout the Globe’s history, that endorsements are made when races are tight, and the Globe editors feel the need to sway undecided voters’ opinions. It is possible that this information caused an increase in Republican voters for 1990 due to an information cascade. Information cascades occur when people abandon their own conclusions or thoughts in favor of inferences based on earlier people’s actions. In this instance, that Boston Globe is the earlier person’s actions and the inference in this case is that Weld is the better candidate for that particular election. With a reputable newspaper saying one candidate is “better” than the other, people will sometimes shed their previous opinions and model their preferences after what the newspaper says. Even though the articles in the Globe gave pros and cons for each candidate, seeing such a definitive opinion from a popular news source affected some Massachusetts citizens into at least thinking about why the Boston Globe chose Weld for the 1990 election.
Under similar circumstances, it can be assumed that the Boston Globes’ endorsement for Charlie Baker will affect current Massachusetts voters in similar ways. Even if voters already have an opinion developed for each candidate, many MA citizens will review their decision to see if their own thinking matches up with that of Boston Globe editors. Perhaps this endorsement will have similar effects as the Weld endorsement for the 2014 gubernatorial election.