Author: Cornell Field Crops

Bill Cox, Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, Cornell University

Wheat has been a major crop in NY since the late 18^th century. In fact, NY along with Pennsylvania and Ohio were the major wheat producing states in the USA in 1850. The acreage of wheat in NY declined steadily in the late 1800s and early 1900s while increasing in the Plains States. By 1915, Kansas, North Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota were the leading wheat producing states. Wheat acreage in these states and the USA, however, has decreased by almost 25% over the last 20 years. In contrast, wheat acreage in NY has remained relatively stable over the same period. Let’s examine the acreage and value of wheat and two other small grains, oats and barley, along with dry beans in NY over the last 25 years to see why the acreage of NY wheat has remained relatively stable.

Annual wheat acreage in NY over 5-year periods during the last 25 years has hovered between ~110,000 and ~135,000 (Fig.1). In contrast, annual oat acreage has plummeted from ~125,000 during the 1989-1993 period to ~40,000 in the 2009-2013 period. Likewise, annual dry bean acreage in NY has plummeted from ~35,000 to ~10,000 during the past 25 years.

Certainly, a major reason for the ~70% decrease in both oat and dry bean acreage over the last 25 years has been the adoption of soybean by NY crop producers. All three crops are summer annuals so oat and dry beans along with other summer annuals, including potatoes, processed vegetables, and some fresh market vegetables, have ceded acreage to soybean. Wheat on the other hand, is a winter annual and can fit into the rotation after soybean harvest, if fall conditions are conducive for soybean harvest by October 25^th.

Another reason for the stability of wheat acreage over the last 25 years is that wheat yields have continued to increase, whereas oat, dry bean, and barely yields have stagnated during this period (Fig.2). The average annual wheat yield has increased from 49 bushels/acre during 1989-1993 to 64 bushels/acre during 2009-2013. In contrast, annual oat yield has fluctuated between 61 and 65 bushels/acre and barley yield has remained stagnant at ~50 bushels/acre during the last 25 years. Wheat yield has increased by 30% over the last 25 years because leading growers on high-yielding soils continue to grow the crop, these growers have adopted more intensive management systems, and Cornell still has an active wheat breeding program.

In contrast, leading growers on high-yielding soils have abandoned oats, barley, and dry beans for soybean, growers manage the three crops similarly in 2014 to how they managed them in 1989, and Cornell no longer has an active oat and barley breeding program. Barley yields, however, may increase in the next 10-year period, given the mandate by NY State for the use of 90% locally-sourced ingredients by 2024, if growers wish to receive a Farm Brewery License.

The stable wheat acreage, coupled with the 30% yield increase and the more than doubling of wheat market prices over the last 25 years (~$3.10 during 1989-1993 to ~$6.60/bushel during 2009-2013), has increased the annual value of wheat from ~$15M during 1989-1993 to over $40M during 2009-2013 (Fig.3). In fact, the value of wheat in NY exceeded $50M in 2013, making its annual value similar to some high-value fresh market vegetables, such as onions and tomatoes. Furthermore, only estimating the value of the grain significantly under-estimates the value of wheat in NY because most growers also bale and market wheat straw.

Indeed, the value of straw has averaged over $150/ton in NY over the last 5 years, adding an additional $20M in value to the crop. Consequently, another reason why wheat acreage has remained stable in NY, whereas acreage has decreased by 25% in the USA, is the demand of wheat straw by the dairy industry. Wheat is no longer the leading crop in NY as it was in the 1800s, but wheat continues to play an important role in the NY agricultural economy as a cash crop, a rotation crop, and supplier of coveted straw to the dairy industry.

Bill Cox, Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, Cornell University

Corn is by far the most important crop produced in the USA in both acreage and value. NY growers typically plant ~1,150,000 acres annually, making NY the 17^th leading state in the USA in corn acres. NY is unique, however, in that planted corn acreage fluctuates between an approximate 50:50 ratio of grain corn and corn silage. Consequently, NY has historically been a leading corn silage producing state. Indeed, NY dairy producers planted approximately 500,000 acres in 2012 and 2013, making NY the 2^nd leading state in the USA in corn silage acres. The NY Crop Reporting Service typically focuses on how NY agricultural commodities rank nationally so the importance of corn silage is highlighted but the importance of corn grain is often overlooked. This article will focus on the acreage and value of corn produced for grain and for silage over the last 25 years to emphasize the importance of both to the NY agricultural economy.

Total annual NY corn acreage averaged ~1,150,000 during the 1989-1993 and 1994-1998 time periods (Fig.1). Total NY corn acreage, however, dipped ~1% during the 1999-2003 and 2004-2008 time periods, averaging ~1,050,000 annually. The lower total corn acreage from 1999-2008 can be attributed mostly to the marked decline in corn grain acres during that 10-year period. Annual corn grain acreage averaged ~600,000 from 1989-1998 but dipped to ~510,000 from 1999-2008. The decrease in corn acres from 1994-1998 to 1999-2003 corresponded, as expected, with the decreased market price for grain corn (~$3.00/bushel to ~$2.55/bushel, respectively in NY).

Annual NY corn silage acreage, however, remained steady from 1989-2003 averaging ~540,000 during this period. In fact, annual corn silage acreage actually exceeded corn grain acres during the 1999-2003 period (~535,000 vs.495,000 acres, respectively). Milk prices remained similar during the 1994-1998 and 1999-2003 periods (~$14/ and ~$13.85/cwt, respectively), which probably contributed to stable corn silage acreage during this period.  Annual corn grain acreage (~525,000), however, once again exceeded corn silage acreage (~480,000) during the 2004-2008 time period.

Corn grain prices rebounded during this period (~$3.50/bushel), especially in 2007, prompting more growers, even dairy producers, to plant corn for grain, which partially explains the ~10% decrease in annual NY corn silage acres during 2004-2008. The decrease in corn silage acres during the 2004-2008 period, however, is somewhat surprising because milk prices increased to $17/cwt during this 5-year period.

The annual value of corn silage produced in NY was consistently greater than that of grain corn from 1989 through 2008 (Fig.2). Annual corn silage value in NY showed a strong linear increase during this period, an average increased value of ~$20M during each 5-year period (~$185M during 1989-1993 to ~$260M during 2004-2008). In contrast, the annual value of grain corn in NY fluctuated during this 20-year period (an average value of ~$150M from 1989-1993, to ~$190M from 1994-1998, decreased to only $~130M from 1999-2003, but rebounded to ~$250M from 2004-2008).

The ratio of acreage and value of both crops, however, have changed dramatically in the last 5 years (Fig. 1 and 2). Annual corn grain acres increased greatly in NY (and in the USA) to an average of ~635,000 during 2009-2013. Obviously, the market price for corn (~$5.75/bushel) was the overwhelming factor in increased NY corn grain acreage during this period. The increase in acres and prices, coupled with relatively high yields, resulted in a dramatic increase in the annual grain corn value in this recent 5-year period (~$440M from 2009-2013). Corn silage acreage remained steady (~475,000) during the 2009-2013 period, despite the increase in average milk prices from ~$17 to ~$18.50/cwt. Nevertheless, the annual value of corn silage, driven by the increase in grain corn and subsequently corn silage prices, increased the annual value of corn silage to ~$375M during the most recent 5-year period.

Milk prices are close to record highs (but will probably fluctuate over the next 5 years); whereas corn prices are at their lowest since 2009. So it will be interesting to see how the ratio of corn silage to grain corn acreage will play out over the next 5 years in NY. In the meantime, let us celebrate the positive impact that grain corn has had on the NY agricultural economy in the last 5 years. Indeed, the average value of grain corn exceeded the average value of the entire fresh market vegetable industry or the total fruit industry from 2009-2013 (Fig.3).

Not only has the crop value increased dramatically, but the increased acreage and value has spurred new industries (ethanol and grain storage industries) and stimulated other upstate NY industries (trucking, increased sales of seed and other agricultural inputs, increased sales of agricultural equipment including the purchase of hundreds  of new planters and corn combines, etc.). Obviously, the grain corn industry has had a tremendous, yet unacknowledged, value-added effect on the upstate NY economy. In conclusion, isn’t it time to report the value of our crops on a NY state basis instead of on a national basis? Instead of highlighting that NY is the 5^th leading tart cherry state ($2.85M value), 4^th leading pear state ($2.35M value), 8^th leading strawberry state ($6.88M value), 4^th leading sweet corn state ($68.4M), 4^th leading fresh market snap bean state ($33.4M) but 21^st corn grain state ($688M) in 2012, wouldn’t it be far more informative to say that NY grain corn was the 2^nd leading agricultural commodity in NY in 2012?

Bill Cox, Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, Cornell University

Most politicians and urbanites in New York are familiar with the dramatic rise of the wine industry in upstate New York, especially in the Finger Lakes region, over the last 25 years. Indeed, nary a week passes without a press release on the growth of the booming wine industry. Likewise, politicians and urbanites are familiar with the increase in organic agriculture over the last 10 years, the dramatic increase in Greek yoghurt production and consumption in New York over the last 5 years, and the potential growth of hops and barley production in support of the developing micro-brewery industry in New York in the next 5 years. What most, if not all of these individuals are unaware of, is that soybean is the agricultural commodity in New York that has increased the most in both acreage and value over the last 25 years. The $195M value of soybean in 2012 ranked the crop as the 6^th leading agricultural commodity in New York.  Based on acreage and value, soybean is no longer a minor crop but clearly a major NY agricultural commodity.

Soybean acreage in New York approximated 40,000 in the late 1980s and increased to ~300,000 acres in 2012 (Fig.1). This 7.5 fold increase in acreage is only exceeded by its 20-fold increase in value since the late 1980s. The annual soybean value approximated $5M in the late 1980s, soaring to almost $200M in 2012 (Fig.2).

Preliminary estimates indicate that soybean value in New York approximated $170M in 2013 (probably will be revised upward because USDA-NASS estimated the market price of the 2013 NY soybean crop at $12.50, much lower than the price that some NY growers have sold their old 2013 crop at over the last two months).  To place the value of soybean in perspective, Fig. 3 compares the value of soybean with the value of all fresh market and all fruits produced in New York since 1988.

Soybean value averaged less than 4% of the entire fresh market vegetable industry in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Incredibly, the average value of the NY soybean crop approximated 40% of the entire fresh market vegetable value in 2012 and 2013! Obviously, soybean is no longer a minor crop but a major New York agricultural commodity.

Conclusion
March planting intentions indicate that New York growers will plant 330,000 acres in 2014. If planting intentions are realized, New York growers will plant record acreage in 2013. New York soybeans averaged 48 bushels/acre in 2013, tied for the highest State average yield on record. Clearly, the crop is thriving in New York. It is time for politicians, administrators at agricultural colleges, and urbanites to recognize and welcome the fact that soybean is a major New York agricultural commodity.

References
National Agricultural Statistics Service. 2013. 2013 New York Annual Statistics Bulletin. http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_York/Publications/Annual_Statistical_Bulletin/2012/2012%20page12-19%20-Field%20Crops.pdf)