Game Theory Predicts Serious Obstacles to Climate Agreement
Game theory analysis, conducted by Professor Oleg Smirnov of Stony Brook University’s College of Arts and Sciences, has shown that the renewal of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change is largely dependent on the actions that China, India, and other developing countries will choose to take.
In the modeling of this “game”, the countries involved in the Paris Agreement are the players. Their strategies are the different decisions and actions they can take towards mitigating climate change. In this analysis, Smirnov uses actual figures and data for greenhouse gas emissions to determine payoff and outcome.
Smirnov addresses the fact that if the U.S. decides to withdraw from the Paris Agreement in the fall of 2020, other countries will feel less motivated to take action against climate change as well, keeping in mind the cost and sake of equal contribution with other countries.
This relates to the material that we have covered in class regarding game theory. It’s interesting to know that certain aspects of our society can be interpreted as a game, and that game theory can help give insight on these situations that would otherwise be very difficult to predict the outcome of. It’s also interesting to see how some of the strongest powers in the world interpret payoff. It seems as if many of them are more concerned about cost rather than the long-term and moral payoff of saving our planet’s climate.