Experienced vs. Novice — The unique network of bettors at the racetrack
Some people make careers out of handicapping horse racing. For others, gambling on horse racing is as uncalculated as playing the roulette table. As a result, there are many ways to approach the sport of horse racing. From the varying levels of the triple crown to low stakes claiming races, fans and enthusiasts participate at different levels. While some people may come to bet on the races once a year during the Kentucky Derby, others could spend every day at the track. What makes horse racing unique is the effect that each bettor has on the odds. When it comes to betting on boxing fights, typically you bet certain odds, and those are the odds you will win with. However, with horse racing, the odds change constantly based on who bets what amount on which horse up until the race starts. This unique relationship between experienced veteran bettors, and casual day-trippers presents a set of challenges to someone trying to maximize their ability to win.
Common knowledge among frequent track goers is that you wait to bet until right before the race starts so that the odds don’t change in a way that impacts people who don’t know much about handicapping and bet based off the odds. This is typically called the smart money coming in. With under five minutes to post (until race time), you can usually witness a large swing in the odds as the “smart money” in bet typically from people who may have inside information, or have been following along a particular trainer or horse’s progress. This network of bettors can create an interesting outcome for people observing from the outside. There is no way for one person to affect the odds. However, if enough people bet the same horse, the odds on that horse will change. Therefore, sometimes people with tried and true methods, such as in the article, can face mixed results because they won’t predict the behavior of the bettor network at the track on any given day. This interesting effect of having different bets affecting the odds until the race starts presents a situation where even the most clueless participants have an equal impact on the outcome of odds as a seasoned pro.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/27781-cracking-the-horse-racing-code