Are we Prepared for when an Epidemic Turns into a Pandemic?
Link: http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20130711-what-if-a-pandemic-strikes
Getting a flu shot is generally an annual event for most of the population. We are told that getting a yearly flu shot can help prevent against strains of the flu. Generally, a new strain of the flu develops every one to two years, which is why there is constantly a different formula for the flu shot distributed yearly. The flu is known as an epidemic, a widespread occurrence of an infectious disease in a community in a particular time. In class, we discussed the spread of epidemics through the Branching Process, and how epidemics are spread by not only the number of people infected, but the probability that a person will catch the epidemic. What epidemiologists are now most worried about is the spread of a epidemic over a much larger area, a pandemic; and epidemic that spreads worldwide.
Generally, the world’s population has experienced a pandemic “every 10-50 for the past few centuries” usually killing a significant amount of the population and having semi-lasting effects on society. Some of the more notable pandemics have been “The Black Death” in the middle ages, “The Spanish Flu of 1918,” which killed “one in five” who were infected and “40-50 million worldwide”. From our study of epidemics, we should really consider what kind of impact a pandemic would have on our ultra-connected society of today’s world. Pandemics can easily spread in airports, major cities, or any other hub of societal activity. So discussing ways to lower the amount of people in contact with an epidemic, as we did in class with our factor k is extremely important. How can we lower this factor without creating a major break in our daily routines, or can we? Do we have to rely on lowering the probability that people will become infected? These are the questions that society is struggling over. How can we stay ahead of a worldwide pandemic? An annual shot just might not cover it this time.