The Plague Epidemic in Madagascar
The article “Madagascar Wrestles With Worst Outbreak of Plague in Half a Century” talks about the current plague epidemic in Madagascar that was first discovered in August. Since the start of the epidemic, the plague, also known as the “Black Death,” has led to 2119 probable cases and 171 deaths. Madagascar has always wrestled with the plague, but it’s the first time in 50 years that an outbreak of this extent was discovered in its non-endemic areas. There are two forms of the plague: the bubonic plague and the pneumonic plague. Both types of plagues can be treated with antibiotics if detected early, but they can be fatal if left untreated.
In class, we talked about the spread of diseases in the form of nodes and links. The nodes represent people, while the links represent potential for contamination and direct contamination. The plague is spread by infected fleas that bite rats and rodents. In turn, these rats and rodents infect humans. Transmission is relatively easy because the plague is spread through droplets in the air. Here, the fleas themselves represent a node. They spread the plague by biting a rat it comes in contact with. Thus, a link is created between the flea and the rat. In a way, the flea can be considered to be “patient zero.” All the subsequent rats the flea bites can be considered to be the “first wave.” The rats have the potential to infect both other rats and humans.
The human “patient zero” of this epidemic and his contact with other people is worth looking into as well. Although the plague is endemic in certain regions of Madagascar, it was in late August when a 31-year-old man traveled from one of these areas to a coastal city by way of Antananarivo, the capital city. Ro is the expected number of new cases of a disease caused by each current case and can be represented as a function Ro = pk. Here, p can be reduced by sanitary measures while k can be reduced by limiting the number of people an infected person comes into contact with. One of the biggest factors that led to this epidemic was the large value of k. Patient zero came into contact with many people during his travel, resulting in 31 people who became ill.
The Center for Disease Control (CDC) has taken on several measures to fight back the plague. These measures include efforts to reduce the values of both p and k. P is being reduced by the initiation of cleaning campaigns and increased use of chlorinated water to kill bacteria. K is being reduced by warning the public about the plague and conducting screening measures on borders to prevent the international spread of the disease. The result of these measures will not be immediately evident, but the simple method of increasing people’s awareness of the plague can lead to a prompt treatment of the disease and lead to a better survival rate.
Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/madagascar-wrestles-with-worst-outbreak-of-plague-in-half-a-century-1510788541