Bayes’ Rule
Link: fs.blog/annie-duke/
This resource is an online discussion between the author and Annie Duke. Annie Duke is a professional poker player. The two are discussing how to make reliable decisions in uncertain and intense situations. As a world-class poker player, author, and academician in the fields of cognitive theory and psychology, Annie has a unique background that allows her to utilize efficient decision-making skills. She understands the difference between decision-making, skills, and luck better than most people. During her interaction with the author, Annie shares tips including the power of probability that allow her to be a successful poker player. Probabilistic decision based on the available information provides confidence in decision-making which leads to a more rational approach.
This discussion relates to Bayes’ rule in our course material. Bayes’ rule is an ideal way to integrate probability thinking in people’s lives. The concept of probability influences the level of accuracy in decision-making. As illustrated in the example of a taxi cab, Bayes’ theorem is an effective way of making inferences from an observation. Such a concept is used in a variety of settings, including spam email detection. Application of Buyer’s rule, however, does not necessarily narrow down the accurate decision one should make. It only provides exact probability signals that allow people to make correct decisions. Each signal provides an estimate of whether the decision is accurate or not. These signals are later combined to arrive at the overall estimation of appropriate choice. The concept is popular not only in detecting spam emails but also in poker play and other situations requiring rational decisions.