Why Anthony Joshua Did Not Accept the Wilder Fight – Game Theory
Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder are the two biggest stars in the heavyweight boxing division. Between the two of them, they hold all four belts in the heavyweight division. So naturally, one would think that they should fight, as it would generate the most possible money, publicity, and the most exciting fight in recent boxing history. Then why did Joshua “duck” – aka refuse to fight – Wilder? Because he had much more to lose if he fought and lost than to gain if he fought and won. Using game theory we can easily figure out Joshua’s decision to fight Povetkin over Wilder.
In this simulated game, -x stands for opportunity cost – or how much money Joshua would gain from not fighting Wilder that he would lose by losing to Wilder, and -y stands for the opportunity cost of Joshua losing to Povetkin (which is far more unlikely than Joshua losing to Wilder). Not only was there a very, very slim chance Joshua lost to Povetkin – he was favored with 1/9 odds to win outright -, in the off chance he did in fact lose to Povetkin, his opportunity cost would be much less than if he lost to Wilder. Losing to Povetkin would be very shocking to the boxing community, and Joshua’s marketability would take a small hit, but he would still be recognized as the top boxer. In addition, Wilder would still need to fight Joshua in order for him to be recognized as the best boxer in the world, so Joshua would still have the multi-million dollar deal from the Wilder fight. Since Joshua beat Povetkin, we can take the hypothetical of him losing out of the picture.
Post-Povetkin win, Joshua is 20 million pounds richer, and his marketability is at an all time high. He is gaining endorsements, on the cover of GQ magazine, and attracting even bigger offers from Wilder’s camp. None of this would be possible if he fought Wilder instead of Povetkin and lost. If he lost, Wilder would take his place as top boxer, with the most marketability and endorsements, and hold all four heavyweight belts. In addition, Joshua’s next fights would not reward him with as much as the Povetkin fight did (20 million pounds), so overall Joshua would earn much less money by fighting Wilder.
Further examining Joshua’s decision to delay the Wilder fight shows the Joshua made the correct decision for his career, and his bank account. Since -x is far greater than -y, Joshua definitely made the correct decision.
Anthony Joshua vs Alexander Povetkin odds: why it goes 12 rounds
http://www.espn.com/boxing/story/_/id/23962111/anthony-joshua-not-ready-deontay-willder-insists-joseph-parker