Winning the Presidential Elections by the Long Tail
Reflecting on President Obama’s reelection on November 6th, many parallels can be drawn between the long tail effect introduced by Chris Anderson and the way Obama won over Romney in important swing states. The demographics of our society are no doubt changing greatly, and is having an increasingly critical impact on political elections. In an article in Time magazine, Jose Vargas discusses how a record number of Latino and Asian voters help Obama “clinch the win” in several battleground states, including Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and Florida. He says what swayed these voters was the issue of immigration, which is very much a “personal issue” to them, having family and friends who are undocumented. Romney referred to undocumented people as “illegals,” while Obama listed solving the immigration problem as one of his main concerns. Might the outcome have been different had Romney addressed the issue of immigration in a more neutral, less pejorative manner?
I think the effect the voters had is akin to the effect of the long tail on the success of some companies like Amazon. With the power of the Internet, customers are being introduced and shifting interest to niche products, and companies like Amazon are relying on these niche categories for a significant portion of their revenue. Thus companies need to be aware of where most of their revenue comes from, know the balance between popular hit products and niche offerings. Similarly, there are hit and niche issues in political campaigns, and each presidential candidate has the choice of deciding what issues to emphasize, and in what way. As Vargas mentions, the economy and budget deficit were key issues for Latino and Asian voters, but these were key issues with all voting blocs. Immigration, however, was near the top of the list for Latino and Asian voters. The economy and budget deficit are hit issues that are of high concern the entire mass of voters, but immigration is more a niche issue to which Latino and Asian voters were particularly sensitive. Thus for many of these voters, Obama’s supportive stance could have been the deciding factor, and their votes in turn could have been what allowed Obama to pull away wins in the swing states.
— Mr. J
Source: http://ideas.time.com/2012/11/08/viewpoint-the-power-of-the-asian-and-latino-vote/?iid=op-main-lead