Binary choices lead to information cascades
http://tierneylab.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/09/how-the-low-fat-low-fact-cascade-just-keeps-rolling-along/
It is really interesting to note that information cascades are partly due to the fact that we view many of the choices we make to be a binary. The fact that a decision is whittled down to just two possible ones removes the chance of the decision we make to reveal our true views on a certain matter.
In this article, the author believes that the common belief that low-fat diet allows one to lead a longer life is a myth that has been perpetuated by an information cascade that is due to the norm where a diet is either endorsed or not endorsed. For example, the information cascade could start off with an agency advocating the adoption of a 100% low-fat diet because they believe it would prolong life. A person who is presented the idea may neither fully agree or fully disagree with it, and choose to adopt a 60% low-fat diet. The next person when seeing the previous guy’s decision, may further lower his or her adherence to the low-fat diet. Both of these would be a half-hearted adoption but nevertheless, an adoption of the diet. When viewed in this framework, there is a strong corrective force since everyone is able to communicate their private views through their actions. In the end, the truth would emerge as more and more people act and adopt the diet according to how strongly the believe in it. However, this corrective force does not exist in a binary world. When asked if they endorsed the diet, people are usually not given the choice to state the details of it. It is just a yes or no answer to the question. Even if a person believed in the diet half-heartedly, that person is still considered to have adopted it and this information is passed on to others, eventually leading to an informational cascade since more and more people would believe in the diet thinking that there are so many others who endorse it.
Viewing decisions as a binary instead of a spectrum causes a loss of information that could have potentially been transmitted through that decision, and it also results in misinformation. It is because of this that a small piece of real information could result in an instantaneous switch in everyone’s perception. Such a huge switch would not occur in a spectrum because the information on the likelihood of such decision-changing information emerging would already be factored in through the weighing up or down of the decision made.
How very true, the myth of “low fat diet” perpetuated by an information cascade. I so appreciated the knowledge you share about a binary decision versus a “spectrum” or a weighted type calculation. The 5 food groups pyramid another example, and who know what other misinformation and non truth has been pushed on us. Thank you!