Bayes’ Rule and Baseball?
We often think of sports as being showcases for individuals’ talents and as opportunities to see who is the best. Whether it be an individual or a team, professional championships are seen as the be all and end all of who the best of the best is for that year or season, and these performances are how professional athletes are judged. In reality, these performances are really more displays of luck than of talent. While it is true that you must exhibit a great amount of talent to get to the level of professional sports, winning a championship game comes down to a lot of chance. This article specifically examines baseball and how to predict who will win the World Series. With all of the luck and chance in a baseball game, you cannot simply say that just because a team has performed better than the other teams this season, they will win this specific seven-game series. Even the best team does not win every single game, and their record for a season cannot necessarily predict their performance in the World Series.
The article references Bayes’ Rule and how it can be used to determine the odds of a certain team winning based on their past performances. This is interesting because of how easily convinced many of us are that if a team has generally performed better than other teams for the entirety of the season, of course they should win the championship. Bayes’ Rule, however, shows us that even with all of these wins, there is no guarantee, and in fact the chances of the team losing are not small. This explains why underdogs can come out on top and can be translated to many other aspects of life. Knowledge of Bayes’ Rule can help people place more accurate bets on teams winning games, and can help people more accurately assess other situations. Applying Bayes’ Rule can show us that even when we may think the odds are against us, there is still a chance to succeed.