Finding the Limits of Bayes’ Rule by Searching for a Missing Plane
Bayes’ rule, the 250-year-old statistical theorem for calculating conditional probabilities, has been employed in the search team for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. The article discusses how Colleen Keller, a senior analyst at Metron, has developed a “Bayesian” model to look for planes. She starts by compiling data of the flight’s last known position, details of […]