What does the Future Holds for Alternative Fuel Vehicles?
It seems as if more and more companies are adopting hybrid and electric vehicles as the product of the future, but when will we see that change come into full effect, and will it be in time to counter the impending oil crisis that we are heading towards? It is the opinion of some transportation engineers that by about the year 2050 fossil fuels will have reached their maximum production, and that we must wean ourselves off of fossil fuels by then, otherwise there will be a serious crisis upon the world’s population. JD Power and Associates have predicted an increase in the sales of alternative fuel vehicles with worldwide sales jumping to possibly three million vehicles by 2015. But is this the tipping point that will cause the market for alternative fuel vehicles to begin to cascade onto the world’s population? Even if there is as large of a jump as predicted it will only account for about 3.4% of vehicle sales worldwide. Most of the increase in sales will be in the United States and China, with China leaning towards the electric vehicle market and the US leaning more towards hybrid vehicles.
Another question that comes to mind is; are hybrid, and ultimately electric vehicles the most efficient vehicles? The efficiency of electric vehicles is greater than that of gasoline and diesel powered vehicles, however it is not the most efficient way to produce energy. Hydrogen fuel cells would be the ideal alternative fuel. They are much more efficient than either electric, gasoline, and diesel powered motors, however there are multitudes of problems with fuel cell vehicles. Fuel cells and containers for the hydrogen are large and heavy, and are not easily stored in a vehicle. The transportation of the hydrogen is more difficult than transporting gasoline and diesel, none of which are as simple as the plug in electric vehicle that has started to rise in popularity. The biggest problem is the lack of infrastructure for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, facilities would have to be built, and production of the hydrogen would need to be increased, and so on. Unfortunately it is unlikely hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will gain popularity in time to save us from the impending oil crisis.
Only time will tell if electric and hybrid vehicles have passed the tipping point and sales begin to increase steadily, or will sales decrease as they did in early 2010 forcing more money into the advertising and advancement of the technology. We can hope for a cascade in the coming decades of sales of alternative fuel vehicles.
http://www.hybridcars.com/news/jd-power-annual-us-hybrid-sales-beyond-1-million-2015-28126.html