Predicting Terrorist Attacks with Game Theory
With the recently commemorated 10-year anniversary of the terrorist attack on 9/11, the United States realizes that the memories of the trauma from terrorism are still fresh to the Americans. But are there specific models that can outline the behavior and reasoning behind the strategies employed by these terrorist groups? As defined and explained in class, game theory is a great model to find decisions and strategies players make with respect to payoffs, the similar application can be applied to the reasoning behind terrorist attacks.
In a research paper “Terrorism: game theory and other explanations” by Karsten Wenzlaff, he states that if we look at the actions of what we refer to as “terrorist groups” from their point of view, we would actually observe rational behavior that maximizes their utility and payoff through given options, constrained by their man power, financial budget, and the risk; but nevertheless, the rationality sets stage for the construction of a game theory matrix where gains from an action the group chooses is reflected through their payoffs. Furthermore, the multitude of decision making by those involved in the games forces us to approach the model with multiple stages and sub-games. As analysts of the game theory model, we can then attempt to predict dominant strategy through the model given parameters relevant that constrains the game.
It is interesting to realize that game theory is so applicable in all aspects of society, and how it can be used as an empirical model to guess the outcomes of future events given the predicted payoffs. In so making the game theory model a useful tool not only for an economist or strategian, but also or the average person to understand how decisions are made.
http://www.karsten-wenzlaff.de/wp-content/uploads/2006/10/wenzlaff-game-theory-and-terrorism.pdf