Using Game Theory To Signal Value In College Football Recruiting
https://medium.com/research-at-marquette/the-economic-case-for-playing-hard-to-get-8ba706ddbf19
Every year across the country, thousands of high school football players eagerly await a phone call from a college football coach. For many players, just the thought of a single offer is a far off dream. But with signing day looming, those lucky enough to have multiple offers are looking to maximize their value and maybe even pick up another blue chip opportunity along the way.
The article linked above describes how a promising young player may go about maximizing their potential, and it is through the power of waiting. Dr. Andrew Hanson found that among players with equivalent measurables (speed, strength, height, weight, etc.) those that held out on accepting an offer longer received more playing time at the college level. On average, those players holding out a month and a half longer received significantly more playing time than their counterparts. This is an effect of signaling theory. The reasoning for this is the extra wait signals value to coaches. Many recruits will inevitably have similar statistics, but only those confident enough in their abilities will wait out the longest to see all of their available options. Players who know they may not be as talented are more likely to lock down and accept an offer earlier in the recruitment cycle.
A high school athlete reading the above may come to the conclusion that it must be a dominant strategy to wait out as long as possible, but that is certainly not always the case. The longer the recruiting cycle goes on for, the more spots the college team is filling, and they will not hesitate to give away a spot already “promised” to another potential recruit. Another factor to consider is injuries. The longer a high school football season goes on, the more likely a player is to be injured, especially in such a violent sport like football. Trying to commit to a high level program while rehabbing a serious injury can prove difficult even for the most talented recruits.
High school football players should be aware of the strategies to increase their value in the eyes of coaches, but also of the potential pitfalls of such tactics. By holding out longer, the recruit is accepting more risk in the form of potentially losing the opportunity (given away or injury). Approaching the recruiting process already aware of this classic game theory conundrum will allow players to find the sweet spot of risk and reward that they are comfortable with. However much risk one is willing to accept to reach for the most sought after offer is up to the player, and has to be decided on an individual basis. Considering these different avenues will allow young players to get the most out of their college recruiting experience.