Game Theory and Run-Pass Option offenses in Football
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/2/12/17003364/rpo-run-pass-options-nfl-college-rules
The Eagles’ 2018 Super Bowl win represented an ideological shift in the world of American Football. Philly’s high powered offense took down the nearly tyrannical New England Patriot’s dynasty, using an offensive system with humble roots. Run options have been a college football staple for decades. Take for example the play outlined below. The offensive lineman block right, as if they were running a typical “zone” style hand-off to the running back. However, the left player labeled “E” is designated as the “read man”, is left unblocked. In order to account for this free defender, the Quarterback will either handoff the football to the Running Back, or take the ball himself and run to the left. This decision hinges on his read, if the unblocked defender “squeezes”, plays tight down the line of scrimmage, he will pull the ball and run himself; if he “peels” and plays more downfield, he will hand the ball. This ensures that the unblocked defender cannot tackle the ball carrier.
These reads are quick, and often misguided, however they give the offense a marginal edge. This can be outlined in the model below. Where “S” represents a successful play for the player, and “F” a failed one. When applying game theory to the read offense, there appears to be no dominant strategy. However, the Quarterback is in the unique position in which he can anticipate the strategy of the defender, and act accordingly. It is the offense’s hope that the defense commits to a strategy early, allowing the QB to act accordingly, thus creating the competitive advantage of the read offense.
| Quarterback | |||
| Unblocked Defender | Handoff | Pull | |
| Squeeze | F, S | S, F | |
| Peel | S, F | F, S | |
From the read offense, the Run-Pass option was born. This is the strategy that elevated Philadelphia as an offense, and is now commonplace in the NFL and college football. Now, instead of reading players on the line of scrimmage, “2nd level” players (those who play behind the lineman), become the read man. In the play outlined below, the Sam Linebacker “S”, is read by the Quarter Back. If the Sam anticipates the run, and plays downfield, the quarterback will pull the ball and throw it to the Z; if the Sam anticipates the pass, the QB will handoff the ball, now with less defenders to worry about.
Again we can model this play below. Using deception as a weapon, and forcing the defense to make the first move has created an imbalance of information, in favor of the offense. This competitive advantage has sent the world of American football into a frenzy, with some prominent coaches and moguls calling for changes in the rules in order to impede the power of the Run-Pass Option offense. However, for the time being its prevalence only grows, despite the differential in strategy opportunity.
| Quarterback | |||
| Sam Linebacker | Handoff | Throw | |
| Plays Run | F, S | S, F | |
| Plays Pass | S, F | F, S | |