Online Gaming: A Model for Human Behavior
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6951918.stm
The human race, now having reached a population of 7 billion, is in the apex of its dominant genetic destiny, and is showing no signs of slowing down. But as the population of the world increases, so does the risk of outbreak of a deadly disease with the potential to bring the human race to its knees. While research on vaccines for the prevention of such outbreaks is an immensely important field of study, so too is modelling human behavior to anticipate the spread of such outbreaks. By understanding the primary mechanisms by which a disease may most aggressively spread, certain protocols may be devised that will serve to dampen the spread of disease in the case of such an occurrence. But how can determine what these primary mechanisms are?
Both cases of outbreaks throughout history and virtual networks can be used to help better understand the spread of contagion, however these methods are limited. Special cases throughout history are useful in that they provide the closest approximation to expected human behavior, but the sheer amount of data for these cases is extremely limited, and it would most likely not be feasible to intentionally release a disease into the human population in order to study its spread. Conversely, mathematical models can be used to study the spread of disease without any risks to the human population. These models, however, rely on mathematical approximations of human behavior which, no matter how robust the approximation is, will never be able to adequately represent the constantly changing beast that is human behavior.
A large, untapped resource that could potentially overcome the limitations of both these methods is the world of online open-world gaming (in this specific case World of Warcraft). It has the unique property of consisting of real people that exhibit real human behavior, but with no real world ramifications. In the past there was a “disease” in the game that was capable of being spread among players with the potential to kill them. While some people chose to shy away from populated areas to avoid catching it, others made it their life’s mission to spread the disease to the four corners of the World (of Warcraft). There are, of course, pitfalls in using such a model, since there are no consequences which leads to riskier behavior than one would observe in the real world, but such details are overshadowed by the fact that these are real people making real decisions. In addition, the geography and population density of the virtual world is hardly a parallel for the world that we leave in. Such pitfalls could be addressed if an online game were to be created as a close approximation to the real world, with the potential to spread contagion, and the implementation of harsher consequences that serve to deter risky behavior.
Current disease models can consist of nodal networks with predetermined mathematical corrections that serve to balance relative nodes and edges with respect to expected real world behavior (not dissimilar to how values can be assigned to nodes and edges to describe their relative strengths, directions, etc.). These virtual worlds hold the potential to provide constant updates of expected human behavior which can then be used to modify current disease models to better approximate human behavior. The advent of such new techniques is necessary to counteract the ever-increasing risk of outbreak in this ever-increasing world.