Diseases and Game Theory
Can game theory be used to help predict and possibly prevent the spread of disease? Fundamentally, game theory refers to situations that require decision making, where the outcomes of such decisions are dependent upon the choices made by other people. When modeling the spread of diseases, the interconnectedness of the modern world creates an abundance of factors that can impact how quickly and effectively diseases can spread around the globe. For example, international travel and transport enables pathogens to spread geographically in an unnatural way. However, the decisions examined in game theory are more related to personal choices with outcomes or consequences.
The article refers to vaccination as an example of a game. Families can choose whether or not to get vaccinated for diseases, with consequences for either option. Getting vaccinated can prevent you from contracting a certain disease, but could cause some “short-term negative effects (financial cost, pain from injection, a temporary reaction from immune system).” When choosing whether to receive the vaccination or not, families must weigh their own options and consequences in relation to the rest of the world. If everyone assumes that the rest of society will get the vaccination, so they likely will not come into contact with any infected person and they would be better off without themselves being vaccinated, then in reality the chance of the disease spreading increases significantly. In these circumstances, the ideal strategy for the individual (or family) may actually be opposing what would benefit the rest of the population.
Although these situations are incredibly complex, and take into account a numerous amount of factors, it is interesting to apply strategic analysis with game theory to help understand and model how individual actions and choices can have ramifications on the rest of the world. Not that any one decision will cause a ripple effect throughout society, but rather that every person’s assumptions about everyone else’s decisions can potentially have drastic effects on the outcomes in any game. This process may not definitively provide answers on the spread or emergence of diseases, but it can serve to provide an analytical model that assesses the choices people make, and what repercussions may follow.