What game theory tells us about nuclear war with North Korea
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/16/what-game-theory-tells-us-about-nuclear-war-with-north-korea/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.336f5373d38c
Due to the lack of data collected on the likelihood of a nuclear strike occurring, it is very difficult to reason about nuclear conflicts and how to stop them. Interestingly enough, however, despite there being very few cases of nuclear weapon use in history, the possibility of nuclear war can be modeled using game theory. Assuming rational decision-makers, mathematical models based on game theory can be used to effectively study conflict and cooperations between countries. This is not a new idea, however. The idea of Game theory has been used to model military conflict since the 1940s.
Similar to the “prisoner’s dilemma” example discussed in class, the decision to go to Nuclear War, to either attack or not attack, can be thought out with the following payoffs. Just like the prisoners in questioning, the two countries in strife have two choices- to either attack each other or not. An attack almost guarantees retaliation and effective destruction of both nations. So, although in the short term it may appear that one country would benefit from bombing the other, the long term effect would be very detrimental to both, which is likely why nothing has happened yet. However, the United States is still much stronger than North Korea and therefore the problem is not exactly symmetric. As North Korea grows their nuclear arsenal and becomes stronger, the situation will become increasingly similar to a prisoner’s dilemma.
Although the best plan of action remains unclear, modeling conflicts such as this using game theory is extremely valuable. Once you know the other side’s game plan, game theory will provide you with the best possible response. If it becomes clear that North Korea is bluffing and would bow to a serious threat, then there is a strong case for the US to issue that threat. On the flip side, if there’s reason to believe they actually would retaliate, then it is foolish for the US to initiate. At the end of the day, it is important to note that the entirety of game theory relies on the idea that both leaders are rational decision makers. Sometimes, it is hard to believe the validity of this assumption, making the conflict an enigma that is yet to be figured out.