The Game Theory Behind Every Coaching Decision in Football
In a sports game, players must choose their next actions precisely and wage their bets on a certain move working hoping the opposing team does not see it coming. In football, if an offense intends on running the ball to the right, and the defense also prepares for a run to the right, then the chances of the offense gaining yards from the line of scrimmage is slim. Most of the time, they would either gain no yards or lose yardage from the previous line of scrimmage. Instead, the team on offense must strategically design a tactic that the defense might not predict. This is the basics of the nature of coaching, but it can get even more complex with 11 unique players on each side of the ball. If one of the better players are on the field, the opposing team would be sure to include his effectiveness in calculating the next move. If the team is close to getting a first down, then the offense may run a play meant to gain a small number of yards. Likewise, if the team were far, the offense would run a play meant to get a lot of yardage. Combining all of these variables (and much more) creates small “games” played at every snap of the football. Each game consists of many different questions, especially for the offense. “Should we run the ball? Which direction? Throw the ball? Long or short? How about the risky trick play?” These are all things that the offensive team may be thinking. Likewise, the defensive team must create a game theory square of their own to effectively disrupt the offense’s strategy. Combining all of these minigames into a 60-minute time frame creates a complete football game.
Then comes Super Bowl XLIX, the 49th version of football’s biggest sporting event. The two teams: New England Patriots and the defending champions Seattle Seahawks. The game was an extremely close one, each play requiring an intense matrix of its own. This all led up to the deciding play of the game. The score is 28-24 with the Patriots leading with a little over a minute left in the entire game. However, the Seahawks were 5 yards away from scoring a touchdown, which would put them back in the lead. The Seahawks decided to run the ball, with full intent to score. They knew if they failed to score though, that the time would still be ticking so they would be potentially reducing the amount of time the Patriots might have in scoring if the Seahawks were to score. Turns out that the Patriots were fully prepared, so they prevented the player (who is the one of the best) from scoring. As the clock ticked with the Seahawks now two yards away from winning football’s biggest game again, the Seahawks decided to throw the ball. They risked the ball being thrown into a dangerous location so that they lose the game just for the two simple rewards: if the ball is incomplete, the time stops ticking, giving them 20 seconds to score. If they were to score, they win the game. The other option was to score with their running back who got three yards the play before to try and score with only two yards to travel. The only risks would be if he were to not make it to the end zone, the time would keep ticking; otherwise, there were no risks. The Patriots were prepared for the pass; in fact, they practiced this very situation for an entire day a couple days before the Super Bowl. The Patriots intercepted the ball, taking the ball away from the Seahawks at the very goal line that they were trying to score at. Not knowing this, the Seahawks ran a play that is now known as being the worst call in Super Bowl history.
Sources:
https://www.economist.com/game-theory/2015/02/02/defending-the-indefensible
“Do Your Job” Documentary on NFL Network