Overcoming the Prisoner’s Dilemma to Reach Peace in Afghanistan
The ongoing war in Afghanistan has been a long drag on the United States in many respects. It has cost trillions of dollars, brought pain to thousands, and ultimately has failed, as of now, to reach a lasting peace. The failure to successfully negotiate peace terms, between the many parties involved, boils down to a complicated prisoner’s dilemma game theory. Prisoner’s dilemma is a theoretical game involving two parties at its most basic form. Both parties can choose to confess or not to confess, and based of these choices they face certain payouts (jail time). It would be a dominant strategy for both to confess because that is the best strategic decision one can make, no matter what the other side chooses. However, there is another combination, where they both choose to not confess, that has the best payout. Rational minded people would not end up at this conclusion because despite the fact you could end up with the best payout, you also expose yourself to other more severe, in this case longer jail time, payouts.
The war in Afghanistan is understandably more complicated than the above described prisoner’s dilemma game theory. It’s not just two individuals facing off, it is rather entire nations and other actors in a battle for governance, peace and institutions, all fought on the backs of servicepeople. However, for the sake of evaluation, we can break peace negotiations down to a game of prisoner’s dilemma. Each actor in the game is faced with choices, knowing that the others actors are also faced with choices. A best choice for one actor, say the United States, may cause damage for another actor, say the Afghan Government. Each actor has desired outcomes, but the means of getting their prove difficult because one’s desires likely fall in contrast with others. It is known in prisoner’s dilemma that rationality will not allow for the best outcome for both parties, even though it is technically a possible outcome. That is a very scary theory when it becomes about real life war, and not made up prison sentences. Is rationality, the distinguishing characteristic of the human brain from other forms of life, also our biggest “dilemma” that doesn’t allow for optimal outcomes?
Link to article: https://www.cfr.org/blog/overcoming-prisoners-dilemma-reach-peace-afghanistan