Putin and Trump: A Precarious Relationship
From the onset of Trump’s bid to become president, doubts about his allegiance to the United States began to surface. One of the more significant cause for this doubt is his relationship with Russian president Vladimir Putin, specifically concerning whether Putin had incriminating evidence of Trump engaged in illegal activities. The article by the Washington Post (linked above), describe 3 scenarios that that guide the relationship between Trump and Putin by utilizing game theory.
The scenarios, each with varying levels of incriminating evidence against Trump, illustrate the pathways and various probabilities of actions occurring if Putin were to release evidence of illegal activities by Trump. In a game theory assessment, should Putin release severely incriminating evidence of Trump that may lead to impeachment, several events could happen. One of which is that that Russia uses the evidence as blackmail and force Trump to incline towards Russian interests. However, pursuing this course of action might elevate Pence to the presidency, which would be unfavorable as Pence would likely pursue a hard-line policy towards Russia. Therefore, there is no clear winner with both standing to lose or win. Should Putin have moderately incriminating evidence of illegal activity by Trump, the scenario would favor Putin as it would prevent impeachment, yet the exposure of such activities can perhaps steer Trump in the direction that more aligns with Russian interests without fear of losing a “puppet” in the White House.
Game theory allows us to predict whether or not the evidence held against Trump is severe or moderate. His current behavior towards Putin and Russia is one that would be described as oscillating or even irresolute indicating that perhaps the file against Trump is between moderate and extreme if there is one at all. This analysis, however, is a bare-bones game theory application because international politics, especially one that deals with the behavioral theory of world leaders, requires a nuanced and more in depth approach to understand certain actions that take place. Nevertheless, Game theory is fundamental in assessing the behavior that can have world altering ramifications.