How Structural Balance and Triadic Closure Might Cause International Chaos
In recent news, US and Turkey relations have been strained, mainly due to the fact that the US supported the PKK – Kurdistan’s Worker Party which has a reputation for being Turkey’s enemy – in Syria and that NATO defense companies such as Raytheon have been giving Turkey “the cold shoulder” in helping develop their defense programs. On top of that, Turkish ties with Russia and Iran are growing stronger, which could spell bad news for US foreign relations, NATO, and the rest of the world.
If Turkey loses its ties with the US, it would not only be a detriment to the US, but also NATO. The Strong Triadic Closure Property states that if there are two strong ties in a group of 3 nodes, there must exist another tie to complete the triangle. Assuming that every nation in NATO has a strong tie with each other, Turkey losing its tie with the US would mean that in order for the NATO network to continue to satisfy the Strong Triadic Closure Property, Turkey would have to effectively lose its tie with every country in NATO, which means that Turkey would leave NATO completely. On top of that, whatever loose allies the US had with other nations because of Turkey would also be lost, which could be terrible for US trade and foreign relations. On top of that, Turkey forming a strong tie with Russia would mean that Turkey would then become allies with Russia’s strong allies in order to satisfy the Strong Triadic Closure property, putting them further away from US and NATO interests.
In an even worse case, Turkey could develop a negative tie with the US. In relation to the Structural Balance Property, Turkey would then develop a negative tie with the rest of the NATO nations as well assuming that all the nations in NATO have positive ties with each other,, and if Turkey develops a positive tie with Russia, this could mean that Turkey could develop positive ties with all of Russia’s allies, thus putting two groups of nations against each other. Turkey developing a positive tie with Russia could entail two things based on the Structural Balance Property; either the US and Russia could keep a good relationship, or a strong tie, or the US and Russia would have an adverse relationship, or a weak tie. The latter event could cause international chaos, with superpowers pitted against each other and nations scrambling to find which alliance they belong to, so hopefully the Turkey and the US can improve their relationship to themselves and NATO as well.