Game Theory: Nuclear War with North Korea
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/16/what-game-theory-tells-us-about-nuclear-war-with-north-korea/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.74a99b2cf9dd
Game theory offers solid insight into “best” strategies when modeled over simple “games”, but how useful is in when applied to a real world situation? Trump and North Korea previously built up tensions regarding a potential nuclear war (although U.S. – North Korea relations seem to have improved recently), so game theorists have been attempting to predict either side’s best military strategy. This scenario is similar to the famous Prisoner’s Dilemma problem, except here, the two “players” decide whether to attack or not to attack. Since this is a real world application and the players have to think about what happens after they make one move, they have more reason to cooperate instead of attacking each other under knowledge of the risk of retaliation. Additionally, North Korea does not seem to have the means to retaliate against the U.S. as much as the U.S. does to retaliate against North Korea, so the situation isn’t exactly like the Prisoner’s Dilemma yet, although North Korea is working on developing its nuclear ability. This situation can also be compared to the U.S. and Soviet Union’s relationship during the Cold War.
This relates to the principles and assumptions involved in game theory. Game theorists are looking at the interconnectedness of the U.S. – North Korea network at the behavioral level. However, this scenario is difficult to actually analyze because neither side knows much about the other due to their lack of direct interaction, and it’s not just a simple game. The U.S. and North Korea have a long term interaction where one “round” in the “game” affects the next round as well. Since this is a more complex real world situation, this article acknowledges that the game theory model does not offer any solid advice on what the best strategy for the U.S. is. However, if the U.S. has a better idea of what North Korea’s best strategy is, the game theory model can provide valuable insight. It still seems to be unclear whether this nuclear war will really occur, but now that the two countries have established a formal diplomacy, it is fortunately less likely. Overall, nuclear war is a serious threat to the nation, and attempting to make strategic predictions can significantly help this country’s decision-makers put down the right move.