The Syrian Conflict: A Graph Analysis
The Syrian Rebellion is the most talked about phenomenon on the world stage today, and for good reason. It has everything to grab the world’s attention: a ruthless dictator is slaughtering his own people and catapulting his country into civil war in possibly the most unstable region in the world. But the events that have been on the minds of the majority of Americans are not the actual events within Syria, but how the wider world has reacted to them. A Middle Eastern massacre performed by a desperate and corrupt regime is almost expected, but why in the world would China join Russia in a block to delay international intervention? Some were shocked by this incident and I was curious about it myself, so I made an international relations graph to shed some light on the issue. Before I get into the analysis, I think it is important that I explain why I connected and signed the graph as I did.
On the far right, China, Russia and Iran are all allies and Iran is allied with Syria. This is obvious just by looking at the strategic treaties signed among them. China and Russia are both founding members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This organization and the treaties that form it seek to foster military cooperation and economic stability in central Asia. China and Russia dominate the organization and many political analysts in the west see it as an attempt to bring China into the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), or the Russian equivalent of NATO. Iran is the only member of CSTO that was not previously a Soviet satellite state, was given observer status in the SCO in 2005 and was offered full membership into the SCO in 2006. What this all boils down to is that the two more powerful nations want influence and the one needs allies so all three have a huge interest in keeping America out of the Middle East. Iran has been one of Syria’s strongest allies since the Iran- Iraq War and they continue to support each other in their crusade against Israel. The two have signed numerous defensive and military treaties. China and Russia do not seem to have a direct interest in Syria, but preserving Iran as an ally is key to their positions in Central Asia and the Middle East.
On the far left, the US, Israel and Egypt are all allies. This is made very clear when financial aid is considered. The US and Israel have proven to have incredibly strong ties. Israel was the largest recipient of US aid from 1976 to 2004 and the US continues to give Israel $3 billion dollars in aid per year. US- Egyptian
relations have improved considerably since the ‘70s. The US has given Egypt $19 billion in aid, making it the second largest non-NATO US aid receiver. In 1989 Egypt became a ‘major non-NATO ally’ of the US. In 1979 President Jimmy Carter oversaw the signing of the Camp David Accords. The once tense relationship between Egypt and Israel eased and both were formally brought under the umbrella of the USA. A major conflict has not erupted between the two nations since the treaty was signed.
The negative relations are fairly easy to describe. Russia has been butting heads with America since the Cold War and has a huge strategic interest in keeping the US out of Central Asia. The United States supported a corrupt Shah in Iran during the ‘70s and, thus, has been the lighting rod of hate for that country ever since the Shah’s overthrow. The relations between the US and Iran are so bad that they do not even exchange ambassadors. Also, the US is a critical ally of Israel who is the sworn enemy of both Syria and Iran. Syria has waged war against Israel four times and neither country has ever recognized its legitimacy. Ever since Egypt signed the Camp David Accords the relations between it and Syria have declined.
Now the stage is set for the action to unfold. Syria is committing horrendous atrocities to its own people. The wider international community, spearheaded by the US and backed by Israel and Egypt, are calling for the end of the violence and for the leader Bashal al Assad to step down. Iran comes to the aid of its strong ally and asks Russia for help. Now the issue is sent to the UN where China holds considerable sway as a permanent member with veto power. How is China going to react?
This graph is a classic example of polarity. There are only two ways a graph can be balanced: either everyone is an ally or there are two groups where everyone in a group is allied with everyone in the group and enemies with everyone in the other group. Therefore, the only way for this graph to be balanced is for China to disagree with the US and ally itself with Russia and Syria. That is exactly what China did.
http://www.wistv.com/story/19701037/syria-ever-present-at-un-general-assembly