A Nuclear Equilibria
UK, US, China, Russia; all of these world powers have one thing in common when it comes to power: nuclear weapons. Ever since the United States dropped the first atomic bomb over Hiroshima on August 1945, every nation has been in need to acquire one for themselves. A modern nuclear device is capable of releasing 1.2 million tons of TNT or the power to level any city in the world. Smaller developing nations such as Iran and North Korea have created nuclear development programs believing that the acquisition of nukes means the acquisition of world power. Using game theory, we can analyze why certain nations seek to acquire nuclear devices, why world powers don’t want them too, and predict what will happen in the future.
| Nation 1 | |||
| Nation 2 | Holds Nuclear Device |
Does Not Hold Nuclear Device |
|
| Holds Nuclear Device |
5,5 | 0,10 | |
| Does Not Hold Nuclear Device |
10,0 | 0,0 | |
Above is the game theory matrix with 2 nations either holding a nuclear weapon or not holding a nuclear weapon. Looking at this table there are three possibilities. The first possibility is if both nations do not have nuclear weapons. This is the least likely option to happen since neither countries will gain. Both countries will be able to gain power by changing their decision.
The second possibility is our current state, Nation 1 holds a nuclear device and Nation 2 does not hold a nuclear device. In this situation, Nation 1 is the only dominant power. Since this is not a nash equillibrium and the current world powers want to stay world powers, they must work to suppress any other nation developing nuclear devices. Therefore, powerful nations such as the US will “do what we must” to stop countries such as Iran from acquiring nuclear devices
If Nation 1 holds a nuclear weapon and Nation 2 also holds a nuclear weapon, then both nations will gain and be equal nuclear world powers. This situation is the nash equilibrium that smaller nations such as Iran and North Korea are seeking to be at. Ideally if other factors were ignored, eventually the world would enter this Nash equilibria and other countries will acquire Nukes and gain world power. (However by the time this happens better technology will be developed for current world powers)
-Bear