Network Effects and the Aftermath of the Palestinian Bid for UN Membership
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3162
Whether or not the United Nations grants membership to a Palestinian state, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will still be unresolved the next day. Furthermore, the UN vote will not occur in a vacuum; people all over the world will be waiting for the outcome and every person will have some reaction to the UN decision. In the West Bank, it is almost a foregone conclusion that some kind of demonstration will take place, though it remains to be seen whether those demonstrations would be celebratory or not. The article “The IDF and PA Prepare for Disturbances” by Mark Donig and Jeffrey White from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy says that “Several scenarios are possible, including mass demonstrations within Palestinian cities, marches on Israeli checkpoints and settlements, and demonstrations at various points along the Israeli security barrier.” The article explains that depending on the location of the protests, the emotions of the protesters, and the participation of extremist factions in the protests it is possible for initially peaceful demonstrations to turn violent.
Preventing violence is an extremely complex task in this situation and Donig and White explain how Israeli and PA security forces have been training for riot response. They also state that “radical Palestinian elements could incite violence” so even though a majority of the demonstrators may be peaceful, it is possible that violence could still develop. Although the presence of “radical elements” is only one contributing factor, it is possible to examine what will happen in various protest scenarios using a simple model of network effects that takes those elements into account. In order to do so let x equal the fraction of protestors at a given location who expect violence to occur and y equal the fraction of protestors who actually participate in violence where y=f(x). Also, let f(0) equal the number of radical elements who intend to incite violence. When f(x) is above the line y=x the actual participants in violence tend to increase, while that number decreases for f(x) below that line. Three basic outcomes are then possible and are described below.
First, assume that no radical elements attend the demonstration and the only people who expect violence are those who are extremely angry about the outcome of the UN vote. Then, the network curve starts at zero. Unless the number of people who expect violence is greater than or equal to x’, there will be only a few violent incidents and the demonstration will subside and be purely peaceful.
Network Dynamic with f(0)=0
Next, assume that a small number of extremists go to the demonstrations to start violence. Now, other people will definitely become violent as well, but if few people besides the radicals go expecting violence then it is possible that fighting would remain at the minimum equilibrium x’.
Network Dynamic with f(0)>0
Finally, assume that a relatively large group of hostile elements attend the protest. At this point, the network dynamic curve has only one equilibrium, that being large-scale participation in violence.
Network Dynamic with f(0)>>0
Although this model is extremely simplified it is clear why there is so much trepidation regarding the bid for Palestinian recognition in the UN. If anyone demonstrates with the purpose of inciting violence then violence is almost bound to occur and high tensions and emotions can only exacerbate the situation. However, if Israeli and Palestinian forces can isolate the violent instances and discourage more people from participating then there is still the potential for peaceful protests.